大类资产跟踪周报：A股开启阶段性行情，美国非农数据超预期

Core Insights - The A-share market has entered a phase of upward momentum driven by the "924" policy package and the September Politburo meeting, with a significant trend reversal occurring within just five trading days [2][7][9] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for September exceeded expectations, with an increase of 254,000 jobs, indicating resilience in the U.S. labor market and enhancing expectations for an economic "soft landing" [2][7][9] Equity Market - A-shares are expected to maintain an upward trend post-National Day, but caution is advised regarding potential volatility due to rapid price increases, suggesting a strategy of profit-taking at highs and re-entering during corrections [2][7][9] - Key sectors to focus on include brokerage firms, internet finance, consumer goods, real estate, and technology, which are likely to benefit from the recent policy changes and market recovery [2][7][9] Bond Market - The bond market is experiencing a "stock-bond seesaw" effect, with a notable decline in the attractiveness of bond investments due to historical low interest rates and recent policy shifts, leading to a cautious outlook for the short term [2][8][9] - The bond prices are expected to fluctuate downward from high levels, with a gradual return to fundamentals as market sentiment stabilizes [8][9] Commodity Market - The improvement in liquidity is positively impacting commodity prices, with a broad increase across the sector, particularly in coal, iron ore, and natural gas [3][17][18] - Oil prices are expected to remain volatile due to concerns over weak demand and oversupply, while gold prices are supported by improved liquidity following the Fed's unexpected rate cuts [3][17][19] High-frequency Data Tracking - The AH share premium has decreased to 8.82%, remaining above the historical median, indicating a potential adjustment in market valuations [20] - The risk premium for the entire A-share market is at 4.25%, suggesting a favorable risk-return profile compared to historical averages [20]