9月通胀数据点评：核心CPI有待政策提振

Inflation Data Summary - In September 2024, the CPI increased by 0.4% year-on-year, down from 0.6% in August, and remained flat month-on-month[2] - The PPI decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, worsening from a decline of 1.8% in August, with a month-on-month drop of 0.6%[2] - Food prices saw a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, driven by significant rises in pork (16.2%), fresh vegetables (22.9%), and fresh fruits (6.7%) compared to previous values[2] Core CPI and Non-Food Items - Core CPI growth remained low at 0.1% year-on-year, down from 0.3% in August, indicating a continued decline in non-food item prices, which fell by 0.2%[2] - Energy prices dropped by 3.5%, a decline that expanded by 2.5 percentage points from the previous month, contributing to the overall decrease in non-food CPI[2] Service Prices and Real Estate - Service CPI growth slowed to 0.2% year-on-year, down from 0.5%, with notable declines in travel-related costs, such as airline tickets (-14.1%) and hotel stays (-5.6%) compared to previous values[2] - The rental market showed signs of weakness, with housing CPI at -0.1%, indicating a need for policy support in the real estate sector[2] PPI Sector Analysis - The PPI for the mining and raw materials sectors fell significantly, with declines of 2.5% and 3.2% year-on-year, respectively[2] - Specific industries like oil and gas extraction and black metal mining saw PPI decreases of 10.1% and 6.5% year-on-year, reflecting broader economic challenges[2] Economic Outlook - The report anticipates that upcoming fiscal policies announced on October 12, 2024, may provide targeted support to stimulate consumption, particularly in the home appliance and home improvement sectors[2] - The overall economic recovery remains uncertain, with risks associated with policy effectiveness and external geopolitical tensions potentially impacting commodity prices[3]