非银金融行业鉴古明今：券商历次上涨行情复盘

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Positive" based on the expected performance relative to the benchmark indices over the next 12 months [36]. Core Insights - The report identifies four significant bull markets for the brokerage sector since 2012, with notable price increases exceeding 50% during these periods [3][4]. - The current market environment is likened to the 2014 bull market, driven by favorable policies and liquidity easing, with a significant increase in daily trading volumes and margin financing [26][31]. Summary by Sections Historical Market Review - The report reviews four major bull markets from 2012 to 2024, highlighting the key drivers and market performance during each period [3][4]. - The brokerage index saw substantial gains, with the most significant increase of 266% from July 2014 to April 2015, driven by policy reforms and liquidity [10][11]. Policy and Market Drivers - The report outlines various policy measures that have historically supported market growth, including regulatory reforms and liquidity injections by the central bank [5][10][26]. - Recent policy announcements in September 2024 aimed at boosting the capital market are expected to have a similar positive impact as seen in previous bull markets [26][27]. Current Market Performance - The report notes that from September 24 to October 9, 2024, the average daily trading volume reached 19,742.39 billion, marking a significant increase compared to previous periods [26][28]. - The Wind All A index recorded a 25% increase during this timeframe, indicating strong market momentum [26][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a positive outlook for the current market cycle, suggesting that macroeconomic policies will lead to substantial improvements in the industry fundamentals [31]. - Key brokerage firms such as CITIC, Huatai, and Galaxy are highlighted as strong investment opportunities, with a focus on thematic brokers and those with low base elasticity [31][32].