9月通胀数据点评：核心CPI同比放缓至0.1%

Inflation Data - In September, the CPI year-on-year increased by 0.4%, down 0.2 percentage points from August, while the core CPI year-on-year slowed to 0.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.8%, widening from a decline of 1.8% in the previous month[1] - The core CPI has shown a continuous decline since the beginning of the year, with an average increase of 0.5% from January to September, not significantly exceeding last year's average of 0.7%[7] Contributing Factors - The main contributors to the CPI increase were essential food items, with food prices rising by 0.8% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.16 percentage points to the CPI increase[7] - Non-food prices decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, impacting the CPI negatively by about 0.18 percentage points, primarily due to insufficient domestic demand and international commodity price fluctuations[7] - The rental prices in the housing category saw a year-on-year decline of 0.4%, indicating a weaker employment market compared to pre-pandemic levels[7] Policy Implications - Recent announcements from the central government regarding a package of incremental policy measures aim to alleviate local government debt pressure and stabilize the financial system and real estate market[9] - The effectiveness of these policies will need to be monitored through indicators such as government debt issuance, fiscal spending growth, and various economic data including PPI and retail sales growth[9] - The potential for further monetary easing remains, especially if domestic indicators do not recover as expected in the fourth quarter[2]