东海证券：晨会纪要-20241014

Key Recommendations - The core viewpoint from the October 2024 Ministry of Finance press conference indicates that the tone and incremental information exceeded market expectations, signaling a more positive outlook. Although specific details on increasing local government debt limits and special bonds were not disclosed, there is significant room for imagination regarding these measures. The focus on debt resolution as a key fiscal strategy will effectively alleviate local financial constraints and restore market confidence. Combined with previously announced policies, the monetary and fiscal measures are expected to boost nominal GDP growth in Q4, enhancing risk appetite for equities and leading to subsequent improvements in fundamentals [6][7]. - The emphasis on debt resolution is prioritized, with plans for a substantial one-time increase in debt limits to support local governments in addressing hidden debts. The specific scale of this increase is likely to be announced after the October Standing Committee of the National People's Congress. The ongoing issuance of special bonds for debt resolution has been around 800 billion yuan this year, with an additional 400 billion yuan allocated from the central fiscal budget to support local government finances and resolve corporate payment arrears. This approach is expected to free up financial resources for local governments to stabilize investment, expand consumption, and improve livelihoods [7]. Inflation Insights - The September CPI and PPI data were both below expectations, but they do not reflect the anticipated recovery in confidence following the September 26 Politburo meeting and the October 12 fiscal policy announcements. It is believed that inflation has reached its low point, and with the implementation of new policies, price levels are expected to rebound, particularly in production material prices, which would be favorable for PPI and equity pricing [10][11]. - The CPI performance was weaker than seasonal trends, with a month-on-month change of 0.0% in September, reflecting a decline in food item support and continued weakness in non-food items. The prices of fresh vegetables and fruits increased by 4.3% and 2.1% respectively, but this was below the five-year average. The PPI saw a significant year-on-year decline due to both tailing factors and new price increases, with major industry prices generally falling [11]. Financial News - The People's Bank of China and four other departments issued guidelines on enhancing green finance to support the construction of a beautiful China, proposing 19 key measures to increase support for key areas, improve green financial services, and enhance the implementation of these policies [13]. - In the U.S., the September PPI data exceeded market expectations, with a year-on-year rate of 1.8%, compared to the expected 1.6% [13]. A-Share Market Commentary - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.55% to close at 3217 points, with significant outflows of capital, indicating a bearish market sentiment. The index has seen a maximum decline of over 14% from its recent peak, and the technical indicators suggest that further observation is needed to assess the market's recovery potential [15][16]. - The only sector to gain was precious metals, which rose by 1.27%, while other sectors, including beverage manufacturing and real estate, experienced significant declines. The overall market sentiment remains low, with a majority of stocks showing negative performance [15][16]. Market Data - As of October 12, 2024, the financing balance stood at 1,579.5 billion yuan, with a notable increase of 14.13%. The one-year MLF rate is at 2%, and the one-year LPR is at 3.35% [18]. - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3217.74 points, down 2.55%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 5.06% to 2100.87 points [18].