VANKE(000002) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-10-14 05:40Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [3][6] Core Views - The company maintains its position among the top three in the industry, with strong support from the financing side. Despite a year-on-year decline in sales scale and unit price, the company has a relatively sufficient land reserve and frequent loan guarantees, leading to an optimized debt structure. Profit forecasts remain unchanged, with expected net profits for 2024-2026 at -6.05 billion, 0.75 billion, and 2.755 billion respectively, and corresponding EPS at -0.51, 0.01, and 0.23 [3][6]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In September 2024, the company achieved a sales area of 1.231 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 36.49%, with a sales amount of 17.42 billion yuan, down 45.58% year-on-year. For the first nine months of 2024, the cumulative sales area was 13.308 million square meters, down 26.82%, and the sales amount was 181.2 billion yuan, down 35.43%. The average sales price per square meter in September 2024 was 12,084 yuan, a decrease of 26.82% year-on-year [3][6][11]. Financing Support - The company has been active in providing loan guarantees, with a total guarantee amount not exceeding 150 billion yuan approved at the 2023 annual general meeting. As of October 11, 2024, a loan of 400 million yuan was successfully drawn by a wholly-owned subsidiary [3][6][12]. Financial Forecasts - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 354.091 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 24.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be -6.05 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of -2.8%. The EPS for 2024 is forecasted at -0.51 yuan, with a P/E ratio of -17.9 [7][13].