农业周观点：财政更给力，关注消费预期抬升机会

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to exceed that of the CSI 300 index over the next six months [71]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that fiscal policies are becoming more supportive, which is expected to enhance consumer expectations and support the overall agricultural sector, particularly in the pet and livestock segments [3][7]. - Key stocks to watch include leading companies in the pet food sector such as "Guai Bao Pet," "Zhong Chong Co.," and "Peidi Co.," as well as significant livestock producers like "Mu Yuan Co." and "Wens Foodstuff Group" [3][8]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The performance of the Shenwan Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery industry was 0.81% from September 28 to October 11, ranking 27th out of 31 industries [1]. - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 4.22%, and the CSI 300 rose by 4.95% during the same period [1]. Key Market Trends - The report highlights that the pig price remains strong despite a decrease in slaughter volume, with a cumulative slaughter of 38.49 million pigs, down 5.2% year-on-year [8]. - The average price of pigs as of October 11 was 18.96 CNY/kg, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.68% [12]. Fiscal Policy Impact - The Ministry of Finance announced a series of targeted fiscal policies aimed at boosting economic growth and consumer spending, which is expected to positively impact the agricultural sector [3][7]. - The report draws parallels to past fiscal stimulus measures, suggesting that the pet food sector could see significant growth, with projected compound annual growth rates of 17% for pet food, 15% for nutritional products, and 25% for pet snacks by 2026 [7]. Livestock Sector Insights - The livestock sector is expected to benefit from improved consumer expectations, with the pig industry showing a low price-to-book ratio of 2.99, indicating potential for growth [8]. - The report notes that leading companies are actively engaging in share buybacks, reflecting confidence in their valuations and future performance [8]. Pet Industry Focus - The pet food segment is highlighted as a key area for investment, with domestic brands strengthening their market positions through capacity expansion and brand development [7][8]. - The report suggests that the pet food market is likely to outperform other segments due to its discretionary spending nature [7]. Agricultural Commodity Trends - Global grain supply and demand forecasts have been adjusted, with wheat and rice production expected to fluctuate due to geopolitical factors [16][17]. - The report indicates that the agricultural sector is poised for a recovery, supported by favorable government policies and improving market conditions [39][40].