电子行业跟踪报告：TV面板价格有望企稳，关注“双十一”的需求提振

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the broader market within the next six months [23]. Core Insights - In September, the price of LCD TV panels continued to decline, but the rate of decline slowed compared to August. It is anticipated that in Q4 2024, panel manufacturers will actively adjust production line utilization rates, leading to an improvement in the supply-demand balance for TV panels and stabilizing prices [1]. Supply Side Summary - Chinese mainland panel manufacturers are expected to actively manage production line utilization, with global TV panel utilization projected to drop below 80% in Q4 2024. As of September, procurement momentum from TV panel brands has not increased, resulting in continued downward pressure on panel prices. According to data from Qunzhi Consulting, it is predicted that the utilization rate will decrease from 82% in Q3 2024 to 75% in Q4 2024, which may help restore supply-demand balance and alleviate price decline pressure [2][10]. Demand Side Summary - The "trade-in" subsidy and "Double Eleven" promotions are expected to boost short-term demand for TV panels. The ongoing implementation of the trade-in policy, combined with preparations for overseas Black Friday and the launch of new energy-efficient models, is likely to revitalize demand in the TV market. Retail data from Lottu Technology indicates that from September 9 to 15, online and offline sales of TV panels increased by over 40% year-on-year, with sales revenue nearly doubling. Notably, sales of 75-inch panels rose over 70%, and those of 85-inch and larger panels surged over 170% [12][2]. Supply-Demand Balance Summary - The global supply-demand balance for TV panels is expected to improve, with the supply-demand ratio projected to decrease to 5.9% in Q4 2024 from 7.2% in Q3 2024. Despite a moderate price increase from 2023 to 2024, the supply-demand ratio has remained relatively stable, fluctuating around the 5% balance line due to proactive production line management by manufacturers [15][2]. Investment Recommendations - Chinese mainland panel manufacturers hold significant power in the industry chain, enabling them to dynamically adjust supply and demand in the LCD market. With a focus on production control and price stability, the demand for large-sized TV panels is expected to grow, enhancing the profitability of the industry chain. Leading companies are likely to see improved bargaining power, product competitiveness, and scale advantages, with their profitability and cash flow expected to continue improving as high-generation production line depreciation approaches its end. It is recommended to pay attention to leading companies in the Chinese mainland panel industry [20][2].