食品饮料行业周专题：积极财政态度明确，聚焦韧性与高景气

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, and an "Increase" rating for several other companies including Jiansi Yuan, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a clear positive fiscal attitude from the government, aiming to strengthen confidence and stabilize expectations. It highlights four incremental policies related to debt resolution, bank capital injection, real estate support, and increased social welfare [9][10]. - The food and beverage sector is expected to undergo a two-step recovery process, with the current phase focusing on short-term valuation repair, followed by medium-term fundamental improvement [9][10]. - The report anticipates a slowdown in the sales of liquor in Q3 2024, while the snack sector continues to show high growth potential [10]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Topic: Positive Fiscal Attitude - The Central Political Bureau meeting on September 26 conveyed a strong positive signal regarding fiscal policy, with plans for debt resolution and support for various sectors [9]. - The food and beverage sector is currently in a phase of short-term valuation repair, with a focus on companies with high earnings certainty [9][10]. 2. Key Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on industry leaders with strong earnings certainty and increasing dividend rates, particularly in the liquor sector [11]. - Specific recommendations include Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye for their strong brand power, and other companies like Jiansi Yuan and Shanxi Fenjiu for their market share growth potential [11]. 3. Market Review and Valuation Tracking - The food and beverage index has decreased by 7.10% year-to-date, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 20.40 percentage points [13]. - The report notes that the beverage sector, particularly soft drinks, has shown some resilience with an 18.68% increase year-to-date, while other segments have declined [13]. 4. Macro and Industry Key Data Tracking - In September 2024, the CPI rose by 0.4%, with food and beverage prices increasing by 2.3% [21]. - The report highlights that urban residents' disposable income and consumption expenditure have shown positive growth, indicating potential for future consumption recovery [21].