房地产：存量规划调整，从信用向实物切换的关键

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The adjustment of existing project planning is a new variable in the land market, indicating a shift from credit to physical assets [4]. - The report highlights that the decline in land acquisition scale is slower than the drop in sales scale from 2021 to 2023, suggesting a sustained interest in land acquisition despite market challenges [4][7]. - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the willingness of real estate companies to reinvest in new land under the new conditions of inventory adjustment [4][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Adjustment of Existing Projects - The ongoing adjustment of existing project planning is identified as a new variable in the land market, with significant implications for land acquisition and sales [4][10]. - The report notes that from 2021 to 2023, the compound annual growth rates for land acquisition and sales were -18% and -20%, respectively, indicating a stronger resilience in land acquisition [7][16]. 2. Impact of Land Market Changes on Physical Volume - The report states that the adjustment in the land market will have a chain reaction on physical volumes, linking land use rights transfer income to expenditures on land development and urban construction [4][17]. - As of August 2024, the income from land use rights transfer was 2 trillion yuan, down 25% year-on-year, indicating a potential income gap of 1.4 trillion yuan if the decline continues [4][19]. - The report suggests that the focus of the industry will gradually shift from credit to physical volume indicators such as GDP, PMI, and employment rates starting in 2024 [4][19]. 3. Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment based on their clean balance sheets and potential for recovery, including China Merchants Shekou, China New Group, and Poly Developments [4][25]. - It also highlights companies benefiting from restructuring progress, such as CIFI Holdings and Sunac China [4][25].