电子月报（台股）2024-9：模拟/nor/SoC温和复苏，Q4景气度展望分化

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the semiconductor sector, indicating a positive outlook for recovery and growth in the industry [3]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a gradual recovery, with TSMC's gross margin expected to improve due to strong demand for AI chips, while mature process demand remains weak [2][12]. - The storage segment shows a mixed performance, with DDR3 demand declining and NOR flash experiencing a mild recovery, with potential shortages anticipated in 2025 [2][3]. - Consumer electronics, particularly the iPhone 16, are seeing stable shipments, while large-size panel shipments are recovering [2][3]. - The AI and OEM sectors are expected to maintain steady performance, with significant growth in AI server shipments [2][3]. Summary by Sections Semiconductor - TSMC's revenue reached approximately NT$251.87 billion in September, a 39.6% year-on-year increase, driven by AI chip demand [12][14]. - The advanced process demand remains strong, while mature process pricing is under pressure, with some foundries willing to lower prices [12][16]. - UMC's September revenue was NT$18.94 billion, reflecting a slight decline, indicating a buyer's market for mature processes [16]. Storage - The DDR3 segment is weakening as demand shifts to DDR4, while NOR flash is showing signs of recovery, with expectations of better performance in the second half of the year [2][3]. - Nanya Technology anticipates a decline in shipments and prices for the third quarter, while Winbond expects NOR flash performance to improve compared to the second quarter [2][3]. Consumer Electronics - The iPhone 16 is seeing stable shipments, with expectations for October revenue to remain steady [2][3]. - Large-size panel shipments increased by 3.5% month-on-month, while small and medium-size panel shipments decreased by 5% [2][3]. AI & OEM - The AI server segment is expected to maintain double-digit growth, with overall shipments projected to increase significantly [2][3]. - The demand for AI-related products continues to drive growth in the sector, with companies like Wistron expecting stable shipments in Q4 [2][3]. Components and Power - Passive components revenue stabilized in September, with a year-on-year increase of 10% [3]. - The PCB segment is experiencing strong growth driven by new product developments in AI terminals [3].