电力设备与新能源行业动态点评：分布式光伏意见稿出台，或影响短期需求

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the power equipment and new energy sector [1]. Core Insights - The introduction of the draft management measures for distributed photovoltaic (PV) may negatively impact short-term demand, particularly for large commercial PV installations, while potentially benefiting long-term marketization of distributed PV [1][2]. - The draft policy includes four main aspects: categorization of distributed PV, cancellation of full-grid access for commercial PV, upgrades to internal and public grids, and market-based trading for distributed PV projects [1]. - Despite short-term challenges, the report anticipates that the total installed capacity of new PV in China will remain stable or slightly increase year-on-year [1]. Summary by Sections Short-term Impact - The draft policy's prohibition on full-grid access for commercial distributed PV is expected to significantly affect installation willingness due to mismatches in rooftop area and electricity load, as well as potential payment defaults from users [2]. - The cost of additional facilities for centralized access to the grid may increase project costs by approximately 0.3-0.4 CNY/W for projects around 3-4 MW [2]. Long-term Outlook - Continuous decline in component prices since 2024, with the average price for household PV systems remaining around 3.3 CNY/W, indicates a potential for increased market participation and improved marketization levels for distributed PV [3]. - The principle of "who invests, who files" for project registration is expected to enhance the marketization of new PV stations, benefiting long-term demand for distributed PV [3].