三季报前瞻：重点关注军工并购重组

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [6] Core Views - The military industry is experiencing a demand restart, with significant upward potential. As of October 11, the National Defense and Military Industry Index has increased by 23.10% since September 24, ranking 7th among the first-level industries. However, it has decreased by 30.44%, 6.87%, and 0.10% compared to the beginning of 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively. The current PE(TTM) is 57.89, which is at a low historical position [2][10] - Mergers and acquisitions are advancing, with orders being released, indicating the arrival of a new prosperity cycle. The recent restructuring in the shipbuilding sector and the upcoming listing of Chengfei are signs of increased activity in mergers and acquisitions. The military industry has many central state-owned enterprises with abundant advantageous assets, providing natural advantages for restructuring. The demand turning point has arrived, as many companies have disclosed new orders this year [3][11][12] Summary by Sections Demand Restart and Market Potential - The military sector has shown signs of recovery, with the National Defense and Military Industry Index rising significantly. The current market PE is relatively low, indicating potential for growth as the industry is at a restart point [2][10] Mergers and Acquisitions - The shipbuilding sector is undergoing restructuring, with significant market capitalization and asset values. The integration of major companies is expected to create a leading entity in global shipbuilding orders. The military industry is positioned for asset quality improvement and valuation expansion through restructuring [11][12][13] Investment Suggestions - Focus on companies that adapt to new combat needs and have overseas advantages, such as Hongdu Aviation, North Navigation, and Aero Engine [5][17] - Opportunities in low-cost and military-civilian integration sectors, particularly in drones and satellite applications, are highlighted. Beneficiaries include Hongdu Aviation, Guankong Technology, and Beidou Star [6][18] - The demand for smart munitions is expected to rise under new requirements for low cost and high reliability, with beneficiaries including North Navigation and Guokai Military Industry [8][18] - Companies with significant order backlogs and improved margins, such as Zhimin Da and Rui Chuang Wei Na, are also recommended [8][18]