钢铁与大宗商品行业周报：现实未改，预期先行

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the steel and commodities industry [2]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's pace of interest rate cuts may slow down, while the possibility of rate cuts in the Eurozone is increasing. Strong employment and PMI data in the U.S. have enhanced market confidence in an economic soft landing, reducing expectations for significant rate cuts in November [3][11]. - Domestic A-share market fluctuations are significant, driven by changes in monetary and fiscal policies. The recent rebound in A-shares is attributed to a package of incremental policies announced by the National Development and Reform Commission [3][11]. - The steel sector is expected to see a strong adjustment in rebar prices in the short term, despite general demand being cautious [12][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The report highlights the impact of macroeconomic factors on the steel and commodities market, including the influence of U.S. employment data and Eurozone inflation rates [3][11]. 2. Market Review 2.1 Sector Performance - The steel sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly decline of 4.9% [14][15]. - The overall performance of the steel sector is reflected in the significant increase in trading volume, which rose by 275.7% compared to the previous period [15]. 2.2 Major Commodity Price Trends - The report notes a weak performance in the black commodities sector, with rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, and coke prices showing declines of 2.34%, 1.21%, 3.96%, 4.01%, and 5.23% respectively [18][19]. 3. Market Tracking 3.1 Rebar - Rebar prices have shown a slight increase after a period of decline, with demand remaining cautious [12][11]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Iron ore prices have experienced a decline due to weak supply-demand fundamentals, although there has been a slight rebound in prices recently [12][11]. 3.3 Coal - Coking coal prices are showing a strong performance in the spot market, while futures prices are weaker. The overall supply remains tight due to maintenance during the holiday period [12][11]. 3.4 Copper - Copper prices have weakened due to high prices suppressing demand and cautious market sentiment following fiscal policy reassessments [12][11]. 3.5 Aluminum - Aluminum prices have increased, driven by rising energy prices and improved market conditions post-holiday [12][11]. 3.6 Crude Oil - Crude oil prices have fluctuated due to geopolitical tensions and changes in demand forecasts, with recent price rebounds following supply disruptions [12][11]. 3.7 Soda Ash - The soda ash market is experiencing weak performance in futures, while the spot market remains relatively stable [12][11]. 4. Important News - The report discusses macroeconomic news impacting the industry, including policy changes and economic data releases that could influence market conditions [3][11].