策略观点：政策博弈窗口A股转向双向波动

Market Performance Review - The A-share market experienced a pullback after failing to maintain the strong momentum seen before the National Day holiday, with trading volume gradually shrinking, indicating a shift from extreme optimism to rationality [8] - Most major indices declined, with only the Sci-Tech 50 index showing a positive return of 3.04% for the week, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices fell by 4.74% and 5.12%, respectively, marking the largest declines among major indices [8] - All CITIC style indices fell, with financial styles showing relatively smaller declines, while consumer and cyclical styles, which represent pro-cyclical logic, experienced larger drops [8] - The performance of all industries was negative, with TMT and financial sectors showing relative strength, while sectors like social services, media, real estate, beauty care, and agriculture faced significant declines [8][11] Important Events and Data - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) held a press conference on October 8, 2024, discussing the implementation of a package of incremental policies aimed at promoting economic stability and quality development [12] - The NDRC announced that 700 billion yuan of central budget investment has been fully allocated for "two重" construction, and a 1 trillion yuan special long-term bond has been issued to support local projects [12] - On October 12, the Ministry of Finance indicated plans to increase the debt limit significantly and replace local government hidden debts, aiming to support local governments in managing debt risks [12] Future Outlook and Investment Views - The report suggests that after the initial excitement of the bull market fades, the A-share market will return to rationality, transitioning to a phase of two-way fluctuations [17] - The recent policy shifts from the central bank and the Central Political Bureau indicate a positive turn in the policy stance towards the economy and capital markets [17] - Investment strategies should focus on the reversal of basic economic conditions under policy guidance, particularly in sectors like infrastructure, cement, glass, and steel, which are expected to have greater elasticity due to government support [17]