国防军工行业本周观点：三季报前后或是最佳配置时点

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the defense and military industry [3]. Core Insights - The defense and military index has increased by 23.56% since September 23, while the CSI 300 index has risen by 21.43%, indicating a relative outperformance of 2.12%. The overall performance of the index is consistent with the broader market, but historical data shows that the military sector typically outperforms the CSI 300 during bull markets, suggesting significant upside potential for the sector [33]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The military index (801740) decreased by 2.48% from October 8 to October 11, while the CSI 300 index fell by 3.25%, resulting in a relative outperformance of 0.78 percentage points. The military index ranked 8th among 31 sectors during this period [10][12]. - Since May 2024, the military index has gained 8.78%, compared to a 7.85% increase in the CSI 300, marking a relative outperformance of 0.94 percentage points and an improvement in ranking by 10 positions [12]. Key Investment Thesis - The report emphasizes that the period around the disclosure of the third-quarter reports is an optimal time for investment in the military sector. It anticipates a positive marginal change in industry demand by the end of October, driven by the annual demand expectations from end customers to upstream suppliers [2][33]. Fund Flows and Valuation - There has been a significant net inflow into military ETFs, totaling 3.213 billion yuan, which is substantially higher than the historical average. This indicates increasing market confidence and interest in the military sector [21]. - As of October 11, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the military index is 49.51, which is relatively low compared to historical levels since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, suggesting a strong margin of safety for investors [27][29].