有色行业周报：美国9月非农数据超出预期，金价高位震荡

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for precious metals [2] Core Views - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for September exceeded expectations, with employment increasing by 254,000 and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. This has led to a shift in market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with November's cut probability decreasing from 50 basis points to 25 basis points [2][12] - Gold prices are expected to remain volatile at high levels due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the commencement of a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve [2][12] - Industrial metals have shown an overall upward trend, with copper and aluminum inventories decreasing, indicating a potential improvement in demand [2][12] Summary by Sections 1. Core Views and Investment Recommendations - The report highlights the positive impact of U.S. employment data on gold prices, with expectations for continued high performance in the long term [12] - Industrial metals are expected to benefit from improved liquidity and seasonal demand, with specific attention to copper and aluminum [12][14] 2. Weekly Sector Performance Review - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 7.58% for the week ending October 4, 2024, ranking 25th among 31 sectors [15] - All stocks in the non-ferrous metals sector recorded gains, with the top performers including Xinweiling (+29.92%) and Tengyuan Cobalt (+20%) [20] 3. Price and Inventory Performance 3.1 Precious Metals - As of October 4, 2024, COMEX gold closed at $2673.2 per ounce, down 0.28% from the previous week, while silver rose by 1.66% to $32.445 per ounce [22] - The gold-silver ratio reached 82.39, indicating a slight decrease [25] 3.2 Industrial Metals - LME copper and aluminum prices showed mixed results, with copper at $9961.5 per ton (-0.09%) and aluminum at $2665 per ton (+1.29%) [28] - Inventory changes for copper and aluminum indicated a decrease in LME stocks and a slight increase in SHFE stocks [27] 3.3 Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 0.13%, while other energy metal prices remained stable [30] 3.4 Minor Metals and New Materials - Prices for rare earth elements showed slight increases, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide reaching 428,000 yuan per ton [36] 4. Important News of the Week - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for September showed a growth of 254,000 jobs, surpassing expectations and contributing to a rise in the dollar index [43]