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名创优品:首次覆盖报告:IP产品占比不断提高,海外市场加速拓展
09896MNSO(09896) 甬兴证券·2024-10-14 09:51

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Miniso Group [5] Core Views - Miniso is the largest private label lifestyle retailer globally, with a rapid expansion of stores both domestically and internationally. The company aims to increase its store count by 900-1100 annually from 2024 to 2028, potentially doubling its total stores by 2028 [4][13] - The company is focusing on increasing the revenue share from IP products, which are expected to enhance overall profitability. The average annual revenue growth rate is projected to be no less than 20% from 2024 to 2028 [4][5] - The efficient supply chain system supports high cost-performance products and enables global expansion. The company has a low inventory turnover period of 68 days, which is better than its main competitors [4][39] Summary by Sections 1. Rapid Growth of Global Private Label Retailer - Miniso has opened 6,630 stores globally as of March 31, 2024, with 4,034 in China and 2,596 overseas, showing significant year-on-year growth [4][13] - The company achieved revenues of 138.4 billion CNY in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 39%, and a net profit of 22.5 billion CNY, growing 112% year-on-year [4][15] 2. Vision to Become the Leading IP Design Retail Group - The company aims to increase the share of IP products in its revenue from 26% in 2023 to 50% by 2028, capitalizing on the growing consumer interest in IP products [4][35] - The average annual per capita consumption of IP products in China is significantly lower than the global average, indicating substantial growth potential [29] 3. Super Supply Chain and Unique Business Model - Miniso employs a highly efficient supply chain that allows for rapid product launches and minimizes inventory risks, with an average of 930 new SKUs introduced monthly [37][38] - The company utilizes three business models (partner, agent, and direct) to expand its store network, adapting to local market conditions [42][43] 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 28.1 billion CNY, 35.2 billion CNY, and 39.6 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.23 CNY, 2.80 CNY, and 3.14 CNY [5][7]