食品饮料行业2024Q3业绩前瞻：大众品改善，白酒去库存

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the demand for high-end liquor is under pressure, leading to overall growth slowdown in the industry. However, there are signs of improvement in the mass market segment, with expectations for marginal recovery [2][4] - The report emphasizes that the beer sector continues to face demand pressure, with performance varying among companies. Despite this, some companies like Yanjing Beer are expected to show profit growth due to effective reforms [2][12] - The condiment sector is experiencing improved sales dynamics, with raw material costs continuing to decline, benefiting overall profitability [2][19] Summary by Sections 1. Liquor - High-end liquor demand is under pressure, with Moutai's sales expected to grow by 15% year-on-year in Q3 2024, while Wuliangye is projected to see a 3% increase [7][10] - The second-tier liquor segment is facing weak business demand, with Shanxi Fenjiu expected to grow by 8% year-on-year in Q3 2024 [8] - Local liquor brands like Jiuziyuan are expected to perform well, with a projected 20% revenue growth in Q3 2024 [9] 2. Mass Market Products - The beer sector is experiencing a decline in sales volume, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.7% expected in Q3 2024. However, the average price per ton is still expected to grow [12][17] - Yanjing Beer is anticipated to achieve a 4% revenue growth in Q3 2024, driven by successful reforms [12][18] - The condiment sector is seeing improved sales dynamics, with major raw material prices declining, leading to better profit margins for companies like Haitian Flavoring [19][26] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading liquor companies such as Moutai, Wuliangye, and local brands like Jiuziyuan, as well as mass market companies like Tianwei Food and Angel Yeast [2][3][10]