电力生产脱碳的经济学（英）2024

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the electricity production industry regarding decarbonization Core Insights - The electricity production sector is the largest contributor to global emissions, and decarbonizing it involves complex optimization of costs, geographical potential, and technology complementarities [3][7] - Recent energy-economy models indicate a significant shift towards renewable energy, particularly solar and wind, which are projected to dominate the electricity mix by 2050 in scenarios aiming to limit global warming to below 2°C [3][10] - The paper synthesizes various specialized analyses to present a comprehensive overview of decarbonization strategies and the evolving role of different energy sources [8][15] Summary by Sections Introduction - The decarbonization of electricity is a macroeconomic priority due to its significant share in global emissions, necessitating a stable low-carbon electricity system [7][8] The Electricity Mix - Various models project that solar and wind energy will increasingly dominate the electricity mix, with significant regional variations based on local conditions [19][31] - Historical trends show a rapid increase in renewable energy capacity, with countries like Denmark and Lithuania achieving high shares of solar and wind [19][20] Types of Low-Carbon Electricity Production - Solar and wind energy are identified as the most cost-effective options for decarbonization, although they face challenges related to supply variability and land use [51][53] - Other options like hydropower, geothermal energy, carbon capture and storage (CCS), biofuels, and nuclear energy are also discussed, each with unique advantages and limitations [54][56][61] The Role of Cost - The report emphasizes the importance of cost in determining the viability of different energy sources, with solar and wind showing the lowest levelized cost of electricity [4][51] Flexibility Options - Flexibility options such as energy storage, grid extension, and demand flexibility are crucial for integrating variable renewable energy sources into the electricity system [5][46] Conclusion - The findings suggest that while achieving 100% renewable electricity may be challenging, high shares of renewables are feasible, and a diversified energy portfolio can enhance system reliability [40][46]