央行数字货币对货币操作的影响（英）2024

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The introduction of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) will significantly impact monetary operations, requiring central banks to adapt their frameworks to manage the demand and supply of reserves effectively [14][15][29] - The analysis identifies three scenarios of CBDC substitution: CBDC substituting for cash, bank deposits, and central bank reserves, each with distinct implications for monetary operations [30][31][54] - The design features of CBDCs, such as access, remuneration, and holding limits, will influence the degree of substitution and the resulting effects on monetary policy [31][32] Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the implications of CBDCs on monetary policy transmission and operations, emphasizing the need for central banks to anticipate challenges associated with CBDC implementation [14][15] A Primer on Monetary Operations - Central banks aim for price stability through various monetary policy regimes, including inflation targeting, exchange rate targeting, and monetary targeting [19][20] - Monetary operations involve setting objectives, intermediate targets, operational targets, and using instruments to achieve these targets [20][24] Implications of CBDC for Monetary Operations - CBDC is considered a central bank liability, similar to reserves or cash, and its substitution for other forms of money can affect monetary operations [29] - The report outlines three scenarios of CBDC substitution, each affecting reserve balances and monetary policy differently [30][31] Effects on Short-Term Interest Rates - Scenario 1 (CBDC substituting for cash) is unlikely to significantly affect short-term interest rates but may complicate liquidity forecasting [54] - Scenario 2 (CBDC substituting for bank deposits) is likely to affect short-term interest rates due to changes in reserve balances [55] - Scenario 3 (CBDC substituting for reserves) may not significantly impact short-term interest rates if CBDC is treated equivalently to reserves [61] Adapting Monetary Operations and CBDC Designs - Central banks need to adapt liquidity forecasting methodologies to account for the volatility of CBDC demand [62] - Potential solutions include switching to fixed rate targeting, increasing intra-day liquidity windows, and adjusting operational frameworks to manage interest rate volatility [63][66]