衡量软实力：一个新的全球指数（英）2024

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry, as it focuses on the development of a Global Soft Power Index (GSPI) rather than direct investment recommendations [3][9] Core Viewpoints - The report introduces a new comprehensive Global Soft Power Index (GSPI) composed of six dimensions, which allows for comparisons at both the headline level and sub-indices level, enabling granular analysis of soft power across countries [3][9] - The GSPI is constructed using a three-step approach: normalization of variables, aggregation into sub-indices, and aggregation into the final index, providing a systematic framework for measuring soft power [9][25] - The report highlights the macro-financial relevance of the GSPI, particularly its impact on exchange rate volatility, with the culture and global reach dimensions being the most significant in explaining real exchange rate volatility [10][60][62] Data Overview - The GSPI is based on 29 indicators across six dimensions (commercial, culture, digital, education, global reach, and institutions) for a broad set of countries from 1990 to 2021 [9][15] - Data availability constraints limit the most comprehensive version of the GSPI to a balanced panel of 66 countries from 2007 to 2021 [20] Index Methodology - The GSPI is constructed using a standard three-step approach: normalization of variables, aggregation into sub-indices, and aggregation into the final index [25] - Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is used to determine the weights for each sub-index, ensuring that the highest possible variation in the indicator set is accounted for with the smallest number of factors [27][30] Index Results - There is significant variation in the level of soft power across countries, with the GSPI ranging from -0.59 in the Dominican Republic to 1.68 in South Korea as of 2021 [11][39] - Advanced economies generally have higher levels of soft power, but this is not always the case, as seen in the evolution of soft power in China and the United Kingdom, where China's soft power increased significantly while the UK's declined [11][40] - The GSPI and its sub-indices allow for the classification of countries into four groups based on their soft power levels, with Japan and South Korea forming a distinct group due to their high commercial prowess and lower performance in the culture dimension [43][46] Macro-Financial Application - The GSPI is used to test the impact of soft power on exchange rate volatility, with results showing that low soft-power countries exhibit a different dynamic between soft power and real exchange rate volatility compared to medium and high soft-power countries [10][49] - The culture and global reach dimensions of soft power are particularly relevant in explaining real exchange rate volatility, with global reach being the most significant sub-index [60][62]