农林牧渔行业周报：猪价震荡，产能补充偏弱

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][7][48]. Core Views - The report highlights that pig prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a weak recovery in production capacity. Despite a temporary peak in prices, the overall pig price for 2025 is expected to remain above the cost line [3][11]. - The poultry sector is seeing an increase in the price of commodity broiler chicks, indicating a potential recovery in industry sentiment [4][16]. - The animal health sector is expected to benefit from improved downstream demand, with profitability in pig farming continuing to rise [5][27]. - The planting sector is facing a decline in major grain prices, which may impact overall agricultural profitability [6][35]. - The pet industry is witnessing a rise in market share for domestic brands, with significant growth in the pet consumption market [7][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Swine - Piglet prices have declined, and production capacity recovery is weak. The average price of pigs in September was 18.96 CNY/kg, down 1.39 CNY/kg from the previous month. The number of breeding sows decreased by 0.1% month-on-month [11][27]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies like Wens Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and Juxing Agriculture, with attention to flexible stocks such as Tangrenshen and Huadong Holdings [3][11]. 2. Poultry - The price of commodity broiler chicks has increased, with the price of white feather broiler chicks at 4.35 CNY each, up 0.15 CNY from the previous period. The overall industry sentiment is expected to improve [4][16]. - Key recommendations include companies like Shennong Development and Yisheng Livestock, with additional attention to He Feng and Minhe Livestock [4][18]. 3. Animal Health - The average profit for self-bred pigs is 500 CNY per head, while for purchased piglets, it is 346 CNY per head. The demand for animal health products is expected to rise as farming conditions improve [5][27]. - Recommended companies include Biological Products and those with strong recovery potential like KQ Biotech and Reap Biotech [5][27]. 4. Planting - Major grain prices are on a downward trend, with the national average price for corn at 2151 CNY/ton, down 0.1% week-on-week and 19.7% year-on-year [6][35]. - Investment suggestions focus on companies involved in genetically modified seeds, such as Suqian Agricultural Development and Longping High-Tech [6][35]. 5. Feed - Feed prices are decreasing, with the price for fattening pig feed at 3.40 CNY/kg, down 30 CNY/ton month-on-month [7][39]. - The report recommends Haida Group and suggests attention to He Feng [7][39]. 6. Pets - The pet consumption market reached 279.3 billion CNY in 2023, with a growth rate of 3.2%. The pet food segment remains the largest expenditure category [7][44]. - Recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guobao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co. [7][44].