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银行业“量价质”跟踪(六):重点领域资产质量担忧进一步缓解
Donghai Securities·2024-10-14 11:30

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Market Weight" indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [17]. Core Viewpoints - The combination of monetary policy from the central bank on September 24 and fiscal policy from the Ministry of Finance on October 12 is expected to enhance the risk resistance capability of large banks and their ability to serve the real economy, significantly alleviating concerns regarding risks in key areas such as local government financing and real estate [6][7]. - The issuance of special government bonds to supplement the core capital of large state-owned banks is anticipated to improve their risk absorption capacity and sustainability of credit supply. This could potentially increase the core Tier 1 capital of large banks by 500 billion to 1 trillion yuan, supporting an asset increment of 8 to 16 trillion yuan, corresponding to a growth rate of 4% to 8% [6]. - The increase in debt limits to support local government debt restructuring is expected to alleviate concerns regarding risks in small and medium-sized banks, particularly in regions with high levels of implicit local government debt [6]. - The policies are also aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, which will help mitigate risks associated with personal housing loans and operational loans. The measures taken are expected to reduce the non-performing loan ratio in the corporate real estate sector in the first half of 2024 [7]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on large state-owned banks and small to medium-sized banks, particularly those in the Midwest regions where implicit local government debt is a significant concern. Specific banks to watch include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Postal Savings Bank, and several regional banks [7]. Summary by Sections Asset Quality Concerns - Asset quality concerns are further alleviated due to the recent fiscal and monetary policies aimed at enhancing the resilience of banks and supporting the real economy [6]. Interest Margin Support - The gradual emergence of deposit rate cuts is providing support for interest margins, which is crucial in the current economic environment [5]. Credit Dynamics - The shift from old to new credit dynamics is showing signs of easing pressure on interest margins, indicating a potential stabilization in the banking sector [5].