食品饮料行业周报：政策发力，关注板块估值修复

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - Domestic policies continue to exert influence, with expectations for demand recovery and marginal improvements in the sector. The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of -7.47% from October 8 to October 11, ranking 26th among 31 industries in the Shenwan classification. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by -3.56%, indicating that the food and beverage sector underperformed the index by 3.91 percentage points. All sub-sectors within food and beverage showed a downward trend, with the most significant declines in meat products (-6.56%) and other alcoholic beverages (-6.40%). Recent government announcements regarding fiscal policy adjustments are expected to boost market confidence and consumer expectations, leading to a potential recovery in demand [1][27][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Trends - From October 8 to October 11, the food and beverage index fell by -7.47%, ranking 26th among Shenwan's 31 industries. The sub-sectors showed varying declines, with soft drinks (-0.34%) and condiments (-2.52%) experiencing the least drop, while meat products (-6.56%) and other alcoholic beverages (-6.40%) faced the most significant declines [7][27]. 2. Price Fluctuations - The price of Feitian Moutai (loose bottle) slightly decreased from 2300 CNY to 2280 CNY per bottle. The price of fresh milk remained low at 3.14 CNY per kilogram as of October 11, 2024. The price of barley imports averaged 258.17 USD per ton in August 2024, while the current price of white sugar is 6524 CNY per ton, showing a slight increase [14][29]. 3. Industry News - The wine industry is expected to benefit from recent policy stimuli aimed at boosting macroeconomic conditions. The white wine sector is anticipated to recover as business demand stabilizes, with leading companies likely to see improvements first. Notable companies to watch include Guizhou Moutai (600519.SH) and Wuliangye (000858.SZ) [21][28]. 4. Key Company Announcements - Dongpeng Beverage announced a projected net profit of 260,000 to 273,000 million CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 57.04% to 64.89%. Three squirrels reported a significant increase in net profit for Q3 2024, with growth rates between 200.45% and 224.81% [26][29]. 5. Weekly Insights - The report emphasizes the expectation of demand recovery due to ongoing policy support. The current valuation levels in the sector are still considered low historically, reinforcing the "Recommended" rating for the industry. The white wine sector is highlighted for its cyclical nature, with expectations for recovery in business demand as macroeconomic conditions improve [1][27][28].