财政增量发布会专题报告：增量财政金额大约在10月底公布

Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Economic Expansion - China is entering a new round of economic expansion, necessitating the release of local government constraints[6] - The fourth quarter will see a significant acceleration in fiscal spending, which is expected to boost industrial product prices, particularly in the black series[9] - The increase in fiscal spending is aimed at recovering the physical volume lost from January to August and achieving the annual fiscal spending targets[9] Group 2: Debt and Local Government Support - A substantial increase in debt limits to support local governments in resolving hidden debts is deemed necessary[5] - The current fiscal challenges stem from the 1990s tax-sharing reform, which has led to a reliance on land and real estate revenues for local governments[5] - The central government aims to replace local government debt with central debt to restore local government vitality[5] Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - The announcement of the incremental fiscal amount is expected by the end of October, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions[10] - The market has largely anticipated the content of the incremental fiscal policy, leading to limited immediate impact on the equity market[11] - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to stabilize around the 3200-point level, with potential for a new upward trend post-U.S. elections[12]