农林牧渔行业定期报告：补栏谨慎，9月三方能繁增速缓慢

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" for companies like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Shennong Group, indicating a potential upside of over 20% in the next six months [62]. Core Insights - The report highlights cautious replenishment in pig farming, with a slight increase or decrease in the breeding stock in September. The supply pressure is limited, and pig prices have started to rise after a period of decline. The average pig price on October 11 was 18.12 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.90 yuan/kg [2][10]. - For white feather broilers, the supply is tight while demand remains broad, leading to a robust price for chick seedlings. The price of white feather broiler chicks was 4.20 yuan/chick on October 11, up 22.45% week-on-week [3][28]. - The seed industry is receiving support from five government departments to enhance financing for seed companies, which is expected to accelerate the commercialization of biotechnology breeding and improve market concentration [3][41]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Cautious replenishment is observed, with a slight increase or decrease in breeding stock in September. The total output of pigs is expected to increase by 3.00% to 4.30% in October, with daily output showing mixed trends [10][21]. - The average weight of pigs sold is 125.87 kg, with a slight increase compared to the previous period. The price difference between heavier pigs and standard pigs has strengthened, indicating a tightening supply of large pigs [21][23]. - The profitability of self-bred and purchased piglets was reported at 305.91 yuan/head and 47.27 yuan/head, respectively, showing a significant week-on-week decline [10][21]. White Feather Broilers - The supply of parent stock has decreased, leading to a tight supply of broiler chicks. The price of broiler chicks has risen significantly, and the overall price for white feather broilers is expected to increase due to improved supply-demand dynamics [3][28]. - The report notes that the reduction in parent stock and the impact of avian influenza have led to a decrease in the number of broiler chicks available, which is expected to support price increases in the future [30][32]. Seed Industry - The government has issued policies to support financing for seed companies, which is expected to enhance innovation and accelerate the commercialization of biotechnology breeding [3][41]. - The report emphasizes that the commercialization of genetically modified varieties will expand market space and improve industry concentration, benefiting leading seed companies [41].