Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1][21]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the core constraint for personal housing mortgage loans is cash flow, specifically the borrower's monthly income, rather than the value of the collateral property. Current market concerns regarding the decline in collateral value are deemed insignificant [2][3][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Concerns about Mortgage Loans as Asset Collateral - The market perceives personal housing mortgage loans as asset-backed, leading to concerns about the decline in collateral value. As of August 2024, new residential prices have dropped by 8.4% and second-hand residential prices by 14.7% compared to their peak in 2021. The decline varies by city tier, with first-tier cities experiencing smaller drops than second and third-tier cities [3][7][10]. 2. Cash Flow as the Core Constraint for Mortgage Loans - The report argues that mortgage loans are fundamentally cash flow-backed rather than asset-backed. According to the guidelines for risk management in real estate loans, banks should focus on the borrower's repayment ability, with specific ratios for housing and total debt payments relative to income [11][12]. This indicates that the loan amount is primarily influenced by the borrower's income rather than the property value [11][19]. 3. Addressing Market Concerns - The report addresses three main market concerns: 1. The risk of "down payment loss" due to low down payment ratios and significant price drops is considered low, with the average down payment ratio in 2023 estimated at 65.5%, well above the minimum requirement [17][19]. 2. Concerns about needing to "top up principal" if a cross-bank mortgage transfer policy is implemented are mitigated by the understanding that loan limits are more closely tied to income reassessment rather than property value [19]. 3. The risk of banks facing bad debts due to insufficient auction proceeds from foreclosures is limited, as current laws allow banks to pursue remaining debts even if the property value falls short [19][20]. 4. Recommended Investments - The report suggests a dual investment strategy: one side focuses on companies with clean balance sheets, such as China Merchants Shekou, China National Chemical Corporation, and Poly Developments; the other side emphasizes companies benefiting from restructuring, including CIFI Holdings and Sunac China [3][21].
房地产：再论居民“风险”，实物量更重要
Guotai Junan Securities·2024-10-14 14:10