Investment Rating - ANTA Sports Products is rated Overweight with a price target of HK100.10 [5] Core Views - The market reaction to 3Q24 earnings is expected to be neutral to negative due to FILA's sales miss, partially offset by strong Golden Week sales [2] - ANTA brand's new initiatives are showing positive results, with Descente and Kolon continuing strong growth [2] - Management remains confident in achieving its 2024 profit target, contingent on 4Q sales performance [3] Financial Performance - ANTA brand saw mid-single-digit% retail sales growth in 3Q24, with ANTA Core and Kids both growing by mid-single-digit% [4] - FILA brand's 3Q retail sales declined by low-single-digit%, with FILA Classic flat but dragged down by FILA Kids and Fusion [8] - Outdoor brands (Descente and Kolon) grew 45-50%, with Descente up 35-40%+ and Kolon up 65-70% [8] Sales Channels and Inventory - ANTA's offline sales declined by low-single-digit%, while e-commerce grew over 20% [4] - FILA's online sales grew by high-single-digit%, but offline sales declined by mid-to-high-single-digit% [8] - Inventory levels for both ANTA and FILA were below 5 months [4][8] Golden Week Performance - Golden Week sales exceeded management's target, with ANTA and FILA both achieving above teens levels of growth [9] - ANTA's performance was driven by strong same-store sales growth and new store openings (~300 new stores before Golden Week) [9] Full-Year Guidance - Management sees uncertainties in achieving full-year sales targets (10% growth for ANTA and high-single-digit% for FILA) due to 3Q sales miss, but remains focused on inventory and business quality [9] 4Q Outlook and Growth Drivers - The company does not anticipate significant discounting pressure in 4Q due to healthy inventory levels [10] - ANTA Superstore is expected to be a new growth driver, with plans to open ~50 stores by year-end, targeting Rmb20mn+ annual store productivity [10] Valuation and Market Share - The base case valuation assumes a 25x target P/E multiple on 2024 EPS estimates, supported by market share gains through a diversified brand portfolio [12]
摩根士丹利：安踏体育_3Q24 安踏表现强劲，FILA 表现欠佳；黄金周表现强劲