19 August 2025 | 11:35PM HKT Carol Chen +852-2978-7999 | carol.chen@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Xinyu Ruan +852-2978-7347 | xinyu.ruan@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Molly Dai +852-3966-4000 | molly.dai@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Anta Sports Products (2020.HK): Positive read-across from Amer: 2Q beat and guidance raise, continued solid China momentum; Buy (on CL) Amer Sports (AS, Buy, covered by our US Consumer analyst Brooke Roach) reported a solid 2Q beat and FY guidance raise against e ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais highlights Anta Sports (02020) as the top pick in the sportswear sector, with slight upward adjustments to sales and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, and an increase in target price from HKD 114 to HKD 116, maintaining an "outperform" rating [1] Company Summary - Anta Sports is identified as the largest market share winner in the domestic sportswear market, with expectations that domestic brands will surpass international sports retailers in revenue and profitability [1] - The sales forecast for Anta Sports has been slightly increased by 2%, while net profit forecasts have been raised by 1% for the years 2025-2027 [1] Industry Summary - The report notes that domestic sportswear brands are continuing to expand their market share, with a year-on-year sales growth of 4.2% in the first half of the year, outperforming the apparel and accessories sector's growth of 3.1%, but still lagging behind the overall consumer goods growth of 5% [1] - The third quarter is expected to show improved retail sales on a quarterly basis due to a lower base, although discount pressures remain a concern [1] - Xtep International (01368) has seen a downward adjustment in sales forecasts by 1% to 2% and profit forecasts reduced by 3% to 5% for 2025-2027, but its target price has been raised from HKD 5.9 to HKD 6.3, maintaining an "outperform" rating based on risk-reward ratio [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing stable growth in its main brand and FILA, while all other brands are showing rapid growth driven by the outdoor sports trend [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - In Q2 2025, the main brand recorded low single-digit year-on-year growth, while FILA achieved mid single-digit growth, and all other brands saw a significant increase of 50-55% [1]. - For the first half of 2025, the main brand achieved mid single-digit year-on-year growth, FILA recorded high single-digit growth, and all other brands experienced a growth rate of 60-65% [1]. - The main brand's retail growth in Q2 was slightly below expectations, prompting a focus on the effectiveness of online and offline channel enhancement plans [1]. Group 2: Brand Performance - FILA's Q2 retail growth was in line with expectations, achieving mid single-digit year-on-year growth [2]. - The outdoor industry is thriving, with high demand for premium outdoor brands like Descente and KOLON, contributing to the rapid growth of all other brands [2]. - Maia Active is gaining momentum, with a new endorsement deal and the launch of a Yoga Studio store format expected to enhance brand visibility [2]. Group 3: Profit Forecast and Rating - The company is recognized as a leading player in the sports footwear and apparel industry, with a strong competitive edge and significant growth potential through multi-brand operations and overseas expansion [3]. - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 13.5 billion, 15.567 billion, and 17.163 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -13.44%, 15.31%, and 10.25% [3]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating due to the stability provided by its main brand and FILA, along with growth potential in the outdoor segment [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The outdoor trend is driving high growth for the company's other brands, while the main brand's efficiency improvements are being monitored [5] - The company has shown stable performance from its main brand and FILA, with all other brands experiencing rapid growth [7] - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory due to its multi-brand strategy and overseas expansion potential [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: 62,356 million RMB - 2024: 70,826 million RMB (growth of 16.23%) - 2025E: 78,944.69 million RMB (growth of 11.46%) - 2026E: 87,795.88 million RMB (growth of 11.21%) - 2027E: 96,556.82 million RMB (growth of 9.98%) [6] - Net profit projections for the same period are: - 2023: 10,236 million RMB - 2024: 15,596 million RMB (growth of 52.36%) - 2025E: 13,500.18 million RMB (decline of 13.44%) - 2026E: 15,567.18 million RMB (growth of 15.31%) - 2027E: 17,163.18 million RMB (growth of 10.25%) [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be: - 2023: 3.69 RMB - 2024: 5.55 RMB - 2025E: 4.81 RMB - 2026E: 5.55 RMB - 2027E: 6.11 RMB [6] Brand Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the main brand recorded low single-digit growth, while FILA achieved mid-single-digit growth, and all other brands saw growth of 50-55% [7] - The main brand's growth is expected to improve in the second half of the year due to operational efficiency initiatives [7] - The outdoor segment remains strong, with high demand for premium outdoor brands like Descente and Kolon [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports (2020.HK) is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - Anta's retail performance in Q2 2025 showed low single-digit growth for the Anta brand, while FILA brand experienced mid-single-digit growth, and other brands grew by 50%-55% year-on-year [2][6]. - The company is facing short-term operational pressure due to intensified competition and discounting, but the long-term outlook remains stable with expected healthy growth in revenue and net profit for H1 2025 [8]. - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is projected at 134 billion, 150 billion, and 166 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13%, 11%, and 11% [8]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - Anta's retail performance in Q2 2025 was slightly below expectations, primarily due to adjustments in offline franchise stores and pressure from the 618 sales event [8]. - FILA's performance met expectations, with stable discounts in offline channels and a slight increase in e-commerce discounts [8]. Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for Anta are 70,826 million in 2024, 77,975 million in 2025, 85,282 million in 2026, and 92,167 million in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 13.58%, 10.09%, 9.37%, and 8.07% respectively [10]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 13,420 million, showing a decrease of 13.95% compared to 2024, followed by increases of 11.47% and 10.93% in the subsequent years [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][6][9] Core Insights - The main brand of the company is experiencing short-term operational pressure, but there are expectations for improvement in the second half of 2025. In Q2 2025, the main brand recorded low single-digit year-on-year growth, while the FILA brand achieved mid-single-digit growth. Other brands saw a significant year-on-year growth of 50%-55% [5][6] - The acquisition of the outdoor brand Jack Wolfskin has been completed, which is expected to enhance the company's international expansion efforts. The acquisition was finalized on May 31, 2025, for a cash consideration of $290 million, and it is anticipated to improve product structure and retail efficiency through supply chain optimization [6][8] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 78.67 billion, RMB 87.65 billion, and RMB 96.79 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 11%, and 10%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 13.48 billion, RMB 15.51 billion, and RMB 17.25 billion for the same years, with a projected PE ratio of 18, 15, and 14 times [6][8][9] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In Q2 2025, the main brand's revenue showed low single-digit growth year-on-year, while FILA's revenue grew in the mid-single digits. Other brands experienced a robust growth of 50%-55% year-on-year [5][6] Acquisition Impact - The acquisition of Jack Wolfskin is expected to facilitate the company's international market expansion and enhance its product offerings through advanced technology and sustainable innovations [6][8] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 78.67 billion, RMB 87.65 billion, and RMB 96.79 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 13.48 billion, RMB 15.51 billion, and RMB 17.25 billion. The PE ratios are projected at 18, 15, and 14 times [6][8][9]

Core Viewpoint - Anta Group achieved double-digit revenue growth in Q2 2025, with the main brand, FILA, and other brands showing varying growth rates, indicating a strong operational performance despite a challenging retail environment [1][2]. Group 1: Revenue Performance - Anta Group's overall revenue grew by double digits in Q2 2025, with the main brand experiencing low single-digit growth, FILA achieving mid-single-digit growth, and other brands growing by 50-55% [1]. - Specific brand performances include Descente growing over 40%, KOLON growing over 70%, and other brands growing over 30% [1]. Group 2: Operational Strategies - The main brand's online and offline operations are being optimized, with a focus on low-tier store renovations and a new e-commerce head appointed to enhance operational efficiency [2]. - The company is implementing a "lighthouse" plan to empower low-tier franchisees with direct-to-consumer (DTC) experience [2]. Group 3: New Business Developments - Anta's new business initiatives are progressing well, with 17 new Champion stores opened in H1 2025, nearing a total of 100 stores [2]. - The Anta SV collection opened 12 new stores, reaching a total of 62, targeting young trendsetters in first and second-tier cities [2]. - The Super Anta brand opened 20 new stores, with ongoing optimization of its business model [2]. Group 4: FILA Brand Performance - FILA's performance met company expectations, with significant growth in e-commerce and strong sales in tennis and golf categories [2]. - The brand is deepening its focus on fashion sports, with new product lines set to launch in Q3 2025 [2]. Group 5: Other Outdoor Brands - Other outdoor brands are expected to maintain strong momentum in H2 2025, with Descente's revenue growth nearing 50%, KOLON's growth over 80%, and MAIA ACTIVE's growth over 30% in H1 2025 [3].

Core Viewpoint - Anta Sports reported mixed performance for Q2 2025, with the main brand showing low single-digit growth, while FILA and other brands experienced higher growth rates, indicating a diversified brand performance strategy [1][2] Group 1: Brand Performance - Anta's main brand recorded low single-digit growth in Q2 2025, slightly below expectations, with children's products performing better than bulk goods [1] - FILA achieved mid-single-digit growth in Q2 2025, meeting expectations, with children's and Fusion products showing strong performance [1] - Other brands experienced a significant growth of 50-55% in Q2 2025, with Descente and KOLON showing over 40% and 70% growth respectively [2] Group 2: Financial Projections - The company forecasts EPS for 2025-2027 to be 4.72, 5.26, and 5.88 CNY respectively, with a target price of 113.6 HKD based on a 22x PE ratio for 2025 [2] Group 3: Strategic Developments - The acquisition of Jack Wolfskin, a German outdoor brand, was completed in Q2 2025, which is expected to enhance Anta's presence in the outdoor market in China [2] - The company is implementing a "lighthouse store plan" to strengthen its offline presence while enhancing online sales strategies [1]

Group 1 - Anta Group reported a low single-digit year-on-year growth in retail sales for the Anta brand in Q2 2025, and a mid single-digit growth for H1 2025 [1] - FILA brand showed a strong performance with a mid single-digit year-on-year growth in Q2 2025 and a high single-digit growth in H1 2025 [1] - Other brands (excluding those added after April 1, 2025) achieved a year-on-year growth of 50-55% in Q2 2025 and 60-65% in H1 2025, indicating excellent performance across the diversified brand portfolio [1] Group 2 - The company is optimistic about its performance in the sports and outdoor footwear and apparel sector in 2025, expecting continued market share expansion due to an expanding brand matrix [2] - The profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been adjusted downwards to a net profit of 13.412 billion yuan (previously 13.801 billion yuan) and 15.045 billion yuan (previously 15.389 billion yuan) respectively, with a new forecast of 17.281 billion yuan for 2027 [2] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 17.6 times for 2025, maintaining a "strong buy" rating [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Strong Buy" (maintained) [1][12]. Core Views - The company has shown strong performance in the second quarter, with diversified brand advantages becoming evident. The retail sales of the Anta brand achieved low single-digit growth year-on-year in Q2 2025, while FILA brand sales saw mid-single-digit growth. Other brands (excluding those added after April 1, 2025) experienced a remarkable year-on-year growth of 50-55% in Q2 and 60-65% in H1 2025 [3][6]. - The report expresses optimism about the company's performance in the sports and outdoor apparel sector in 2025, anticipating continued market share expansion due to the broadening brand matrix. However, profit forecasts for 2025-2026 have been adjusted downwards due to uncertainties in the consumer market [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2023A, the company reported revenue of 62,356 million, with a year-on-year growth of 16.2%. The net profit was 10,236 million, reflecting a 34.9% increase. The gross margin stood at 62.6% and the net margin at 16.4% [5][10]. - Projections for 2024A to 2027E indicate a steady increase in revenue, with expected figures of 70,826 million (2024A), 80,918 million (2025E), 91,792 million (2026E), and 104,649 million (2027E). The net profit is projected to be 15,596 million (2024A), 13,412 million (2025E), 15,045 million (2026E), and 17,281 million (2027E) [5][10]. Profitability Ratios - The report highlights a gross margin of 62.2% for 2024A, expected to rise to 63.5% by 2026E. The net profit margin is projected to be 22.0% in 2024A, decreasing to 16.5% by 2027E [11]. - Return on equity (ROE) is expected to remain stable around 19.6% for 2025E and 2026E [11]. Balance Sheet - The total assets are projected to grow from 112,615 million in 2024A to 142,268 million by 2027E. The company maintains a healthy liquidity position with a current ratio of 2.1 in 2024A, expected to improve to 2.8 by 2027E [9][11]. - The debt-to-asset ratio is projected to decrease from 40.7% in 2024A to 32.7% by 2027E, indicating improved financial stability [11]. Cash Flow - Operating cash flow is expected to be 16,741 million in 2024A, with a gradual increase to 21,325 million by 2027E. Investment activities are projected to have negative cash flow, indicating ongoing investments in growth [9][10].