November 19, 2025 10:07 PM GMT ANTA Sports | Asia Pacific M Update Asia Pacific Summit 2025 Feedback At our Summit, ANTA commented that sales trend in 4QTD is on track with management's guidance. We think group sales growth will accelerate in 4Q25 vs. 3Q25, which is encouraging given higher base. Key Takeaways 2026 Outlook – Initial Thoughts: With ANTA brand beyond Rmb40bn retail GMV and FILA beyond Rmb30bn retail GMV, group sales are more exposed to macro dynamics. However, the company expects a few growth ...

25 年主品牌增速短期承压的预期基本充分反映在股价调整之中，我们预计26 年开始主品牌有望逐步改 善。公司今年8 月以来股价持续调整的主要原因之一是市场对安踏主品牌营收增速的一再下调。伴随安 踏品牌季度流水增速从Q1 的高单到Q2 的低单和Q3 的持续低单，市场对主品牌全年营收预期也从最初 的高单下调至中单再到三季度以后的低单。但我们认为短期的承压有消费低迷的整体因素，也有公司对 线下渠道优化和电商团队架构调整的短期冲击，后续随着磨合期的度过，公司26 年起主品牌经营有望 逐步改善，也将为公司估值恢复提供动力。 Fila 保持稳健增长，以迪桑特和可隆为首的其他品牌有望延续高增态势，成为公司经营保持韧性的强大 动力。近期刚结束的双十一活动显示公司旗下Fila、迪桑特和可隆表现出色。其中Fila 位列天猫运动户 外销售第一的位置，迪桑特位列第八、可隆位列天猫户外品类第四的位置。结合之前披露的三季度运营 数据，我们预计25 年全年Fila 流水有望实现中单增长，其他品牌流水有望实现40%以上的增长。 根据公司之前公告以及双十一活动情况，我们调整公司盈利预测，预计2025-2027年每股收益分别为 4.69、5.29 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][9] Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong operational resilience through its multi-brand strategy, with Amer Sports reporting a 30% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, exceeding market expectations [8] - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting earnings per share of 4.69, 5.29, and 6.02 RMB respectively, down from previous estimates [3][9] - The target price is set at 112.89 HKD, based on a 22x PE valuation for 2025 [3][9] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million RMB): - 2023A: 62,356 - 2024A: 70,826 - 2025E: 78,573 - 2026E: 86,489 - 2027E: 95,347 - Year-on-year growth rates: 16.2%, 13.6%, 10.9%, 10.1%, 10.2% [3][12] - Operating Profit (in million RMB): - 2023A: 15,367 - 2024A: 16,595 - 2025E: 18,143 - 2026E: 20,123 - 2027E: 22,545 - Year-on-year growth rates: 36.8%, 8.0%, 9.3%, 10.9%, 12.0% [3][12] - Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company (in million RMB): - 2023A: 10,236 - 2024A: 15,596 - 2025E: 13,175 - 2026E: 14,846 - 2027E: 16,886 - Year-on-year growth rates: 34.9%, 52.4%, -15.5%, 12.7%, 13.7% [3][12] - Earnings Per Share (in RMB): - 2023A: 3.65 - 2024A: 5.56 - 2025E: 4.69 - 2026E: 5.29 - 2027E: 6.02 [3][12] - Gross Margin: - 2023A: 62.6% - 2024A: 62.2% - 2025E: 61.9% - 2026E: 62.2% - 2027E: 62.6% [3][12] - Net Margin: - 2023A: 16.4% - 2024A: 22.0% - 2025E: 16.8% - 2026E: 17.2% - 2027E: 17.7% [3][12] - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2023A: 18.3% - 2024A: 23.4% - 2025E: 17.3% - 2026E: 17.1% - 2027E: 17.0% [3][12]

Summary of Anta Sports Products Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Anta Sports Products (2020.HK) - **Related Company**: Amer Sports Key Industry Insights - **Amer Sports Performance**: Amer Sports reported a strong 3Q performance with an adjusted EPS of $0.33, exceeding consensus estimates of $0.25. Revenue increased by 29.7% year-over-year, surpassing expectations of 27.2% [1][3] - **Greater China Growth**: The Greater China market showed robust growth at 47% year-over-year, up from 42% in the previous quarter, with notable performance from brands like Salomon and Wilson [2][11] - **Arc'teryx Recovery**: The Arc'teryx brand experienced a recovery in Q4 after a slow start, attributed to cooler weather, which positively impacted sales [2][3] Financial Outlook - **Guidance Update**: Amer Sports raised its FY25 sales and EPS guidance, although the guidance for Q4 is slightly below consensus forecasts [1][3] - **Anta's Financials**: Anta's adjusted EPS is projected to be between $0.88 and $0.92, higher than previous estimates. The anticipated associate income from Amer to Anta is approximately RMB 1,170 million, representing about 9% of Anta's net income [10][11] Market Dynamics - **Outdoor Segment Trends**: The outdoor segment is expected to peak in Q4, with brands that have strong market presence likely to capitalize on peak season sales. However, some outdoor brands are showing signs of growth moderation and increased discounting due to competitive pressures [4][5] - **Consumer Preferences**: There is a sustained consumer preference for outdoor activities, leading to a shift from casual wear to outdoor apparel [3][4] Risks and Challenges - **Anta Brand Performance**: Concerns exist regarding the muted growth outlook for the Anta brand, particularly during the Double-11 shopping festival [5][21] - **Competitive Pressures**: Some outdoor brands are facing deeper discounting and growth slowdowns, which could impact overall market dynamics [4][21] Strategic Initiatives - **Store Expansion Plans**: Arc'teryx plans to close some stores in China while opening larger, more productive direct-to-consumer (DTC) stores, with expectations for net openings in Greater China into 2026 [13] - **Salomon's Growth**: Salomon's footwear segment continues to show strong growth, contributing positively to the outdoor segment's performance [12] Valuation and Investment Recommendation - **Price Target**: Anta is rated as a "Buy" with a 12-month price target of HK$115, indicating a potential upside of 43.6% from the current price of HK$80.10 [20][22] - **Valuation Metrics**: The valuation is based on a 21x P/E for 2027E, discounted back to mid-2026E at 11% [20] Conclusion - The overall outlook for Anta Sports Products remains positive, driven by strong performance from associated brands and a favorable market environment for outdoor activities, despite some near-term challenges and competitive pressures.

Core Insights - Anta's brand has lowered its full-year revenue guidance to low single-digit growth due to a combination of factors including weak consumer confidence and increased competition [1] - FILA and other brands maintain their full-year guidance, driven by a multi-brand strategy focusing on specialization and high-end growth [2] - The overall sportswear industry is expected to accelerate growth in 2026, with rising penetration rates and easing discount pressures [4] Group 1: Anta Brand Performance - In Q3 2025, Anta's main brand achieved low single-digit revenue growth, showing slight improvement from Q2 2025, with offline and children's lines growing in low single digits and online sales growing in high single digits [1] - The inventory-to-sales ratio for Anta's brand was slightly above five months at the end of the quarter, indicating a healthy level [1] - Anta's management has adopted a conservative strategy for the upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival, leading to a downward revision of the full-year revenue expectation from mid-single-digit to low single-digit growth [1] Group 2: FILA and Other Brands - FILA brand achieved low single-digit revenue growth in Q3 2025, with online sales showing high single-digit growth while offline sales faced low single-digit declines [2] - The inventory-to-sales ratio for FILA was approximately six months at the end of the quarter, expected to return to a healthy level of five to six months post-promotional events [2] - Other brands under the company saw an overall growth rate of about 50% in Q3 2025, with DESCENTE and KOLON SPORT achieving significant growth rates of over 30% and 70% respectively [2] Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The Southeast Asian market for Anta has seen nearly 80%-90% growth this year, primarily driven by same-store sales growth, despite not opening many new stores [1] - The company plans to increase its store count in Southeast Asia to 1,000 within three years, aiming for overseas revenue contribution to reach 15% within five years [1] - The overall sportswear industry is projected to see accelerated growth in 2026, with expectations of improved customer spending and reduced discount pressures [4]

研究报告 Research Report 17 Nov 2025 安踏体育 ANTA SPORTS (2020 HK) 近况更新：随着天气转冷运动鞋服流水压力明显缓解，2026 年行业增长或加速 Recent Updates: Update: Sportswear and Footwear Sell-Through Pressure Eases as Weather Cools; Industry Growth Could Accelerate in 2026 [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$82.10 目标价 HK$103.00 HTI ESG 0.7-1.6-3.5 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$230.47bn / US$29.66bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$135.10mn 发行股票数目 2,807mn 自由流通股 (% ...

Core Insights - Anta Sports reported Q3 2025 retail data showing low single-digit growth for Anta and FILA brands, while other brands experienced a growth of 45%-50% [1] Group 1: Retail Performance - Anta brand retail showed low single-digit growth year-on-year, aligning with trends in the mass sports market, with channel adjustments expected to drive future growth [1] - FILA brand retail performance was relatively weak with low single-digit growth year-on-year, and inventory levels were noted to be high [1] Group 2: Discount and Inventory Management - Anta is expected to face weaker terminal discounts in the short term, but the inventory-to-sales ratio remains healthy [1] - For FILA, offline discounts are expected to remain stable, with an anticipated improvement in the inventory-to-sales ratio [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company is expected to enhance its brand matrix through acquisitions, with previous acquisitions like Jack Wolfskin contributing to long-term growth potential [1] - Projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 13.1 billion, 14.6 billion, and 16.1 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17, 15, and 14 times [1] - The company's share buyback plan continues, providing short-term support for the stock price, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - Anta Sports reported Q3 2025 retail data, showing low single-digit growth for the Anta and FILA brands, while other brands experienced a growth of 45%-50% [2][4]. - The retail performance of Anta is under pressure, with expectations of a decline in terminal discounts, although the inventory-to-sales ratio remains healthy [6]. - FILA's retail performance is relatively weak, with high inventory levels, and it is anticipated that discounts will increase during the upcoming Double Eleven sales to clear stock [6]. - Short-term pressures are expected to continue affecting gross profit margin (GPM) and operating profit margin (OPM), while mid-term growth will rely on store adjustments and international expansion [6]. - The company forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 131 billion, 146 billion, and 161 billion respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17, 15, and 14 [6][8]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - Anta brand retail shows low single-digit growth, aligning with market trends, while other brands are performing significantly better [2][4]. - FILA brand retail is underperforming with high inventory levels, and adjustments are expected to improve inventory turnover [6]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for Anta Sports are 70.83 billion for 2024, 78.63 billion for 2025, 86.40 billion for 2026, and 93.76 billion for 2027, with growth rates of 14%, 11%, 10%, and 9% respectively [8]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) are 4.25 for 2024, increasing to 5.74 by 2027 [8].

Core Insights - Anta's retail sales for its main brands, including Anta and FILA, showed low single-digit year-on-year growth, while other brands experienced a significant increase in retail sales by 45% to 50% [1] - The company opened over 300 new stores nationwide during the National Day holiday, including various specialized store formats to enhance its market presence [1] - Anta has made technological advancements with the launch of a new high-performance waterproof material and a new warming technology derived from aerospace technology, aiming for sustainability in its product offerings [2] Retail Performance - Anta brand products' retail sales grew at a low single-digit percentage year-on-year - FILA brand products also saw low single-digit year-on-year growth in retail sales - Other brands under Anta experienced a retail sales increase of 45% to 50% [1] Store Expansion - Anta opened over 300 new stores during the National Day period, including: - 39 Anta flagship stores - 30 Anta champion stores focused on outdoor sports - 24 super Anta stores covering a full range of products - 41 Anta lighthouse stores offering professional sports products - 8 Anta outlet stores creating a scene-based outlet experience - 4 Anta collection stores for cross-style branding - 11 Anta children's stores for youth sports - 4 ANTA KIDS PARKs designed as scene-based outlet children's sports parks - 55 ANTA Linglong stores dedicated to children's exclusive IP [1] Technological Innovations - Anta launched China's first self-developed high-performance fluorine-free waterproof and moisture-permeable material, "Fluorine-Free Anta Membrane," in collaboration with Donghua University - The new generation of "Storm Armor" was also introduced, marking a breakthrough in the global high-performance waterproof fabric sector - Anta aims to increase the proportion of sustainable products to 50% by 2030 and plans to sell over 500,000 units of the new "Storm Armor" by 2026 [1] Market Strategy - Anta partnered with Wuhan Textile University to launch a new warming technology, "Anta Six-Degree Core Technology," which has been successfully commercialized for consumer use [2] - The HLSTYLED global tour reached major cities like New York, Shanghai, and Paris, with a successful event held in Paris, indicating Anta's strategic expansion into the European market - Anta is collaborating with JD Sports for offline sales and expanding its online presence across five European countries [2] Financial Outlook - The company adjusted its profit forecast but maintains a "buy" rating, citing long-term value supported by multi-brand strategies, operational efficiency improvements, and global expansion - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 13.2 billion RMB, 15.2 billion RMB, and 17.1 billion RMB, with corresponding PE ratios of 16x, 14x, and 12x [2]

Core Viewpoint - Anta Sports' ESG rating was upgraded from A to AA by MSCI, despite facing ecological damage claims related to its subsidiary, Arc'teryx, for an event in Tibet [2][3][4]. Group 1: ESG Rating and Environmental Issues - Anta Sports' MSCI ESG rating was upgraded to AA on October 17, 2023, following a previous downgrade to B in January 2023 [2][7]. - The upgrade comes amidst controversy over the ecological impact of a fireworks event sponsored by Arc'teryx, which has been labeled as "mountain blasting" by netizens [3][4]. - Anta Sports has not publicly detailed its plans for ecological compensation and restoration following the incident [5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Anta and FILA brand products recorded low single-digit growth in retail sales compared to the same period in 2024 [9]. - Anta Sports' revenue grew from 355.12 billion to 708.26 billion from 2020 to 2024, nearly doubling in four years, while net profit increased by approximately 202% during the same period [8]. - Sales expenses grew significantly, reaching approximately 1,087.4 billion over five and a half years, accounting for 35% of total revenue of 3,102.17 billion [11]. Group 3: Inventory and Operational Challenges - Anta Sports is experiencing inventory buildup and operational challenges, with an average inventory turnover period of 136 days in the first half of 2025, compared to 61 days for Li Ning [11][12]. - The company's direct-to-consumer (DTC) reform initiated in 2020 has led to increased inventory levels as it transitioned inventory management from distributors to the brand [12].