Hoymiles(SH:688032) Soochow Securities·2024-10-14 23:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has announced a 2024 restricted stock incentive plan, reflecting management's confidence. The plan involves granting 1.7364 million shares, accounting for 1.4% of the total share capital, at a grant price of 86.99 CNY per share, while the current market price is 171.31 CNY per share. The incentive targets 185 individuals, including core management and key technical personnel [2] - The performance assessment period for the incentive plan spans from 2025 to 2027, with revenue targets set at no less than 2.8 billion CNY for 2025, a cumulative 6.6 billion CNY for 2025-2026, and a cumulative 11.5 billion CNY for 2025-2027. If the lower limits of these targets are met, the revenue growth rates for 2026 and 2027 are projected to be 36% and 29%, respectively, indicating high future revenue growth expectations [2] - The company has also introduced a 2024 employee stock ownership plan, with a maximum participation of 25 individuals, totaling no more than 69.11 million CNY and 790,000 shares, representing 0.64% of the total shares. The purchase price is the same as the incentive plan, and the performance assessment aligns with the restricted stock incentive plan [2] - Due to the impact of European holidays and inventory on shipment volumes, the profit forecast has been adjusted downward. The expected net profit for 2024-2026 is 580.51 million CNY, 811.60 million CNY, and 1,058.19 million CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth of 13%, 40%, and 30%, respectively. The corresponding P/E ratios are projected to be 33, 24, and 18 times, with a target price of 196.8 CNY based on a 30 times P/E for 2025 [2] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue for the company is projected to reach 2,390 million CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 17.98%. The revenue is expected to further increase to 3,701 million CNY in 2025 and 5,130 million CNY in 2026, with growth rates of 54.84% and 38.62%, respectively [1][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 580.51 million CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 13.41%. This is expected to rise to 811.60 million CNY in 2025 and 1,058.19 million CNY in 2026, with growth rates of 39.81% and 30.38% [1][8] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 4.69 CNY in 2024, increasing to 6.56 CNY in 2025 and 8.55 CNY in 2026 [1][8]