银行业：增量政策落地，巩固估值稳定性

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking industry [1]. Core Insights - Incremental policies are being implemented to stabilize valuations in the banking sector [2]. - The report highlights improvements in real estate support policies, local government debt management, and capital market policies that benefit bank valuations [2][21][24]. Market Review - The Shenwan Banking Index has increased by 26.9% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 13.6 percentage points [8]. - The banking sector's absolute returns have improved in Q3, with relative returns slightly decreasing [8]. - Following the concentrated financial policy announcements on September 24, the sector's valuations have continued to rise, reinforcing the value of high dividend yields [8][11]. Incremental Policy Implementation - Real estate support policies have been optimized to alleviate credit risks in the sector [16]. - Local government debt management has been strengthened, with significant measures to reduce debt risks [21]. - State-owned banks are set to receive capital injections, enhancing their balance sheet expansion capabilities [22]. - Capital market policies are being intensified, promoting index investments and long-term capital inflows, which are favorable for bank valuation recovery [24][27]. Operational Outlook - Under the support of incremental fiscal and monetary policies, credit growth in commercial banks is expected to stabilize [3]. - The cost of liabilities is anticipated to be better managed, easing net interest margin pressures [3]. - The report forecasts stable non-interest income contributions, with a focus on maintaining asset quality amid real estate and local government debt risks [3][41]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on banks with strong asset quality and sustainable performance, particularly regional banks that may offer higher dynamic dividend yields [4]. - State-owned banks are highlighted for their significant valuation safety margins and high dividend value [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the effects of incremental policies on credit growth and asset quality [63].