中原证券：晨会聚焦-20241015

Key Points - The report highlights a 5.3% year-on-year increase in China's goods trade import and export volume for the first three quarters of 2024, totaling 32.33 trillion yuan, with exports at 18.62 trillion yuan (up 6.2%) and imports at 13.71 trillion yuan (up 4.1%) [5][7] - The report indicates that the social financing scale for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 25.66 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.68 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year, with M2 money supply growing by 6.8% year-on-year [5][7] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to introduce measures to promote consumption and expand domestic demand in the fourth quarter, including the issuance of long-term special bonds and the development of new fields such as humanoid robots and 6G technology [5][7] Market Analysis - The financial technology sector is leading the A-share market, which is experiencing a volatile upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index showing average P/E ratios of 13.74 and 33.47, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [6][11] - The report notes that the A-share market is expected to stabilize and rebound due to enhanced macro policy expectations, with significant support from the central government and financial regulators [8][9] - The report suggests that investors should focus on sectors such as finance, consumer electronics, semiconductors, and aerospace military industries for short-term investment opportunities [11][12] Industry Insights - The lithium battery sector saw a 31.99% increase in its index in September 2024, outperforming the CSI 300 index, with China's new energy vehicle sales reaching 1.287 million units, a year-on-year increase of 42.37% [14][15] - The report indicates that the real estate market in Henan province is expected to benefit from new policies aimed at stabilizing the market, including measures to support housing consumption and financial assistance [15][17] - The telecommunications industry is experiencing robust growth, with new business revenues increasing by 10.5% year-on-year, and the demand for 5G services continuing to rise [19][21] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "stronger than market" investment rating for the lithium battery sector, considering the industry's growth potential and current market conditions [14][19] - It suggests that the home improvement and renovation sectors will benefit from new policies promoting consumption, with significant potential for growth in the home appliance market [15][16] - The report recommends focusing on key players in the home furnishing sector, such as Oppein Home Group and Sophia, as the market is expected to recover due to supportive policies [19]