造纸轻工行业周报：政策暖风频吹，关注家居造纸板块估值修复

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the positive impact of recent fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing growth and boosting demand, particularly in the real estate sector, which is expected to benefit the home furnishing and paper industries [3][5][6] - The report anticipates a recovery in the paper industry as demand improves in the fourth quarter, leading to a stabilization and potential increase in paper prices [4][9] Summary by Sections Policy Support - The report outlines a series of targeted fiscal measures to support economic growth, including increased debt limits for local governments to manage hidden debts, issuance of special government bonds to bolster bank capital, and the use of special bonds for land reserves [3][5] - Emphasis is placed on the need for coordinated policies to stabilize the real estate market, which is crucial for the home furnishing sector [5][6] Home Furnishing Sector - The report highlights the resilience of leading home furnishing companies, projecting growth driven by scale advantages and effective management strategies [6] - Key recommended companies include Oppein Home, Kuka Home, and others, with a focus on their growth potential in the current market environment [6][7] Paper Industry - The report notes a significant drop in pulp prices in the second and third quarters of 2024, which has pressured overall profitability in the paper industry [4][9] - It predicts that as demand improves in the fourth quarter, paper prices are likely to stabilize and recover, benefiting companies with strong integration and competitive advantages, such as Sun Paper and Huawang Technology [4][9][10] Market Performance - The report indicates that the light industry sector has underperformed the broader market, with specific declines noted in the home furnishing segment [11][13] - Year-to-date performance shows a decline of 14.94% in the light industry sector, contrasting with an 8.16% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [11] Key Company Forecasts - The report provides detailed forecasts for key companies in both the home furnishing and paper sectors, including expected net profits and year-over-year growth rates [7][10]