农林牧渔行业报告：猪价震荡，9月产能依然增加缓慢

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is not explicitly stated in the provided documents [4]. Core Insights - The industry index for agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery fell by 7.59% last week, ranking 27th among 31 primary industries [11][13]. - The pig price has shown fluctuations, with a national average of 18.15 yuan/kg as of October 11, reflecting a slight increase of 0.5 yuan/kg since the holiday period [6][15]. - The industry is experiencing a cautious approach to capacity expansion due to concerns over disease outbreaks and a relatively stable supply-demand situation [15][18]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with high output realization and cost advantages, particularly leading firms like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, as well as smaller firms like Juxing Agriculture and Huadong Food [19]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The agriculture sector has seen a downward adjustment post-National Day, with the industry index declining significantly [11][13]. 2. Livestock Industry Chain Tracking 2.1 Swine: Price Fluctuations and Slow Capacity Recovery - The average profit for self-bred pigs is around 306 yuan per head, down by 62 yuan from the previous period, while the profit for purchased piglets is 47 yuan, down by 138 yuan [16][19]. - The breeding stock for September showed a slight increase, with growth rates of 0.53% and 0.60% reported, although the absolute levels remain low [17]. 2.2 Broilers: High Chick Prices and Weak Market for Meat Chickens - As of October 12, chick prices in Yantai, Shandong, were stable at 4.40 yuan per chick, with a profit of 1.5 yuan per chick, while meat chicken prices remain low [28]. 3. Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices have slightly increased, while soybean prices have decreased, and cotton prices have shown a slight upward trend [29].