原料药行业专题：主动去库存尾声阶段，盈利能力持续修复

Investment Rating - The report rates the raw material pharmaceutical industry as "Outperform" compared to the market, marking its first rating [1]. Core Insights - The raw material pharmaceutical sector is nearing the end of an active destocking phase, with profitability gradually recovering. In 2023, China's pharmaceutical raw material output was 3.427 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6%. However, starting from Q2 2024, production is expected to show year-on-year growth, with export volumes in the first half of 2024 increasing by 23.4% [2][11]. - Price trends indicate a potential turning point, with some products already showing signs of recovery. As of September 2024, prices for vitamins have significantly increased, while cardiovascular raw material prices have slightly decreased. Antibiotic raw materials and intermediates have seen minor price increases, while some products like penicillin industrial salt have experienced price drops [2][30]. - The inventory levels of key raw material companies have been consistently declining from Q4 2023 to Q2 2024, indicating a positive trend in operational performance with revenue and net profit showing year-on-year growth [2][52]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The raw material pharmaceutical industry is experiencing marginal improvements in production, with multiple catalysts expected to open up growth opportunities [4]. Price Tracking - Vitamin prices have surged significantly, while prices for analgesics and heparin have shown notable declines. The overall price trend reflects a recovery from the previous overcapacity situation [30][33]. Company Performance - In the first half of 2024, the overall performance of the raw material pharmaceutical sector showed signs of recovery, with a total revenue of 62.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, and a net profit of 8.74 billion yuan, up 15.6% [48]. Inventory Levels - The inventory levels of raw material pharmaceutical companies have been decreasing, suggesting a potential rebound in downstream demand as the destocking cycle approaches its end [52]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from inventory clearance, integrated formulations, and new product launches, such as Huahai Pharmaceutical, Aorite, Xianju Pharmaceutical, and others [3].