海外需求观察：2024年第42周

Inflation Data - The US September CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year, narrowing by 0.1 percentage points from the previous value, and rose by 0.2% month-on-month, unchanged from the previous value[1] - Core CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous value, and increased by 0.3% month-on-month, also unchanged from the previous value, both exceeding market expectations by 0.1 percentage points[1] - The energy prices continued to decline, contributing to the overall decrease in CPI, while service prices, particularly rent, remained sticky, indicating potential inflationary risks ahead[1] Employment and Interest Rate Expectations - Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 5 recorded 258,000, exceeding market expectations of 230,000, marking a 14-month high[1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November is 83.2%, while the probability of no cut is 16.8%[1] Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for October recorded 68.9, down 1.2 from the previous value, ending a two-month upward trend but still above last year's level[1] - The US Redbook retail sales year-on-year showed a significant rebound at the end of September and early October, indicating resilience in US consumption[1] Emerging Markets Observations - South Korea's exports for the first 10 days of October increased by 33.2% year-on-year, with semiconductor exports rising by 45.5%[1] - Vietnam's consumer spending growth marginally declined to 1.4% in September, with services dragging down the overall performance[1] - Brazil's import growth remained above 10% for four consecutive months, with September exports reversing previous negative growth, rising to 0.26%[1]