基础化工行业周报：财政扩张信号明显，关注化工顺周期投资机会

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that policy initiatives are expected to improve the supply-demand dynamics in the chemical sector, highlighting cyclical investment opportunities [4][46] - The expansionary fiscal policy signals a shift that may alleviate market concerns and boost economic confidence, potentially increasing demand for end-use chemical products [4][46] - The current chemical production expansion cycle since 2021 may be nearing its end, with new policies aimed at high-quality development likely to lead to significant improvements in domestic supply [4][46] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The basic chemical sector underperformed the market this week, with the industry index declining by 10.7%, ranking 20th among 30 sectors [4][48] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has decreased by 8.0%, underperforming both the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index by 16.6 and 21.2 percentage points, respectively [4][48] Investment Opportunities 1. Core Assets: Current chemical product profitability may have bottomed out, with potential for valuation and earnings recovery. Key companies to watch include Baofeng Energy, Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Satellite Chemical [4][46] 2. Supply Constraints: Certain chemical products are experiencing supply disruptions, leading to price increases. Notable sectors include vitamins, sucralose, refrigerants, and polyester filament [5][46] 3. Demand Certainty: Sectors such as civil explosives, modified plastics, and compound fertilizers are expected to see upward demand trends, with key companies including Yipuli, Jiangnan Chemical, and Shidanli [6][46] 4. High Dividend Resources: High dividend assets are likely to see a revaluation, with focus on phosphate and titanium resources, as well as oil companies like CNOOC and Sinopec [6][47] Key News and Announcements - The government announced a series of fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing growth and demand, including increased debt limits and special government bonds to support state-owned banks [4][56] - Wanhua Chemical has resumed normal production after maintenance of its PDH unit, which has a capacity of 750,000 tons per year [57] - Other companies, such as Guotai Group and Chuanjinno, are also making significant investments and expansions in their respective sectors [57][58]