银行行业：积极财政政策进入密集落地期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the banking industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the upcoming fiscal policies are expected to focus on stabilizing growth rather than aggressive stimulus, aligning with market expectations. The effectiveness of these policies will be observed in the upcoming meetings of the National People's Congress and the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of the year [1]. - The report anticipates a recovery in credit growth for state-owned banks, driven by new growth-stabilizing policies. However, it also notes that banks' asset yields will face pressure due to interest rate cuts and the reduction of existing mortgage rates [1]. - The report suggests that the fiscal measures will likely include increasing debt limits to support local government debt resolution, which is expected to enhance the efficiency of resource allocation in the real economy [2]. Summary by Sections Upcoming Industry Events - Major events in the banking sector include the disclosure of third-quarter reports by listed banks in late October [1]. Fiscal Policy Insights - The report discusses the government's commitment to achieving budget goals despite a significant fiscal deficit, with a projected shortfall of 2-3 trillion yuan. Measures to address this include issuing special government bonds and optimizing tax policies [1][2]. - It is expected that the government will arrange approximately 2 trillion yuan annually to address local hidden debt issues in the coming years [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on banks that are closely correlated with economic recovery and have greater performance release potential, particularly regional banks such as Ningbo Bank, Hangzhou Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and Changshu Bank [1]. - It also emphasizes the long-term value of high-dividend assets, particularly state-owned banks, which are expected to benefit from the issuance of special government bonds to supplement their core tier-one capital [1]. Industry Statistics - The banking industry comprises 48 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 125,987.73 billion yuan and an average price-to-earnings ratio of 6.07 [3].