宏观周报：美国9月CPI略超预期，国内延续弱现实强预期

Overseas Macro - In September, the US CPI recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, slightly above the expected 2.3% and down from the previous 2.5%, marking the lowest level since February 2021[2] - Core CPI also exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, compared to the expected 3.2% and the previous 3.2%[2] - Initial jobless claims reached 258,000, the highest in over a year, indicating potential market weakness[2] - The market is pricing in a 90% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in November[1] Domestic Macro - In September, China's CPI fell to 0.4%, below the expected 0.6%, and PPI dropped to -2.8%, worse than the expected -2.5%[4] - Core CPI continued to decline, reaching a historical low of 0.1% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure on consumer spending[4] - Food prices supported the CPI reading, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3%[4] - The Ministry of Finance announced measures to enhance fiscal policy, focusing on risk mitigation and economic growth, but specifics on scale were not disclosed[9] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.56%, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 4.45%[10] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 1.21%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose by 1.13%[10] - The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.08%, reflecting market adjustments to interest rate expectations[11]