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东海证券:晨会纪要-20241015
Donghai Securities·2024-10-15 02:07

Key Recommendations - The report highlights that a turning point has been reached, favoring equities due to a series of policy measures that significantly boost market confidence. The recent announcements from the State Council and the Politburo indicate a strong commitment to counter-cyclical adjustments, suggesting sustained policy support in the future [6][7]. - Global liquidity has reached a turning point, with the Federal Reserve initiating a rate-cutting cycle. This is expected to alleviate exchange rate constraints and support economic recovery [7]. - The report anticipates a potential rebound in profit growth in the fourth quarter, driven by improved fiscal policies and a recovery in demand, despite a weak profit growth outlook for the third quarter [7]. Industry Insights Refrigerant Industry - The report notes an upward trend in refrigerant prices, with R32, R125, and R134a prices increasing by 7.04%, 10.17%, and 1.52% respectively as of September 30, 2024. The price of R22 remained stable, while its price has increased by 53.85% since the beginning of 2024 [9][10]. - The 2025 refrigerant quota draft indicates an increase in R32 supply, which is expected to maintain upward price momentum in the long term. The reduction of second-generation refrigerant quotas is likely to drive prices higher [10]. - The demand for refrigerants is supported by rising household air conditioning production, with production volumes expected to grow significantly in the last quarter of 2024 [10]. Oil and Gas Industry - The report emphasizes that oil and gas companies' market values are significantly influenced by their resource reserves and production levels. The correlation between oil reserves and market capitalization is highlighted as a critical factor [11][12]. - Global oil and gas upstream merger and acquisition activity has surged, with 201 transactions in 2023 valued at $233.5 billion, marking a historical high. This trend is expected to continue into 2024 [12][13]. - Short-term oil prices are projected to remain supported at $65 per barrel, with expectations of Brent crude oil prices fluctuating between $60 and $90 per barrel throughout the year [12][13]. Investment Suggestions - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the refrigerant industry and those with comprehensive supply chains, such as Juhua Co., Ltd. and Sanmei Co., Ltd., as well as raw material suppliers like Jinshi Resources [10]. - For the oil and gas sector, it suggests monitoring state-owned enterprises with strong resource reserves and refining capacities, such as China National Petroleum Corporation and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, which are positioned competitively on an international scale [13].