北方华创：1-3Q业绩预告高增，市占率稳步攀升

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 390.96 [1][4][7] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2024, with projected revenue between RMB 188.3 billion and RMB 216.8 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.08% to 48.61%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be between RMB 41.3 billion and RMB 47.5 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 43.19% to 64.69% [1][2] - The company is benefiting from a diversified product matrix and an expanding market share, with a steady increase in operational efficiency and a decline in cost-to-revenue ratio [1][2] - The long-term outlook for the semiconductor equipment industry is positive, with expectations of continued growth driven by domestic capital expenditure and accelerated localization of semiconductor equipment [3][4] Summary by Sections Performance Forecast - For Q3 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue between RMB 74.2 billion and RMB 85.4 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 20.42% to 38.60%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be between RMB 15.6 billion and RMB 17.9 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 43.78% to 64.98% [2] - The company’s net profit margin for Q3 2024 is estimated at 21%, an increase of 2.9 percentage points year-on-year [2] Market Position and Product Development - The company has seen continuous improvement in its market share and product coverage in etching, thin film deposition, cleaning, furnace tubes, and rapid thermal processing equipment [2][3] - The company has signed new orders exceeding RMB 300 billion in 2023, with over 70% in the integrated circuit sector, indicating strong demand in the domestic market [3] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 305 billion, RMB 411 billion, and RMB 516 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 57.7 billion, RMB 79.9 billion, and RMB 100.9 billion [4][5] - The company’s projected PE ratio for 2024 is 36 times, compared to the industry average of 35.9 times [4][8]