宏观点评报告：出口放缓，扰动还是趋势

Export Performance - In September 2024, China's total export value was $303.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, which was below the market expectation of 5.9% and significantly lower than the previous month's growth of 8.7%[2] - The export growth slowdown was influenced by high base effects from September 2023, which was the second-highest point of the year[2] - The export of mechanical and electrical products saw a sharp decline in growth, dropping from 12.4% in August to 3.8% in September, contributing 2.3 percentage points to the overall export growth[2] Import Trends - In September 2024, China's total import value was $222.0 billion, with a year-on-year growth of only 0.3%, below the market expectation of 1.2%[2] - The demand for bulk commodities showed a mixed trend, with significant increases in agricultural products (3.5%), copper (22.9%), and natural gas (23.6%), while iron ore and crude oil imports faced declines of 11.5% and 11.5% respectively[4][8] - Mechanical and high-tech products remained key import demands, contributing 2.1 and 3.0 percentage points to import growth respectively[4] Global Trade Context - The global manufacturing PMI fell to 48.8 in September, down from 49.6 in August, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[3] - Exports from neighboring economies like Vietnam and South Korea also showed a downward trend, with Vietnam's export growth decreasing from 21.0% in July to 8.4% in September[3] - Shipping indices such as SCFI and CCFI have been on a downward trend since July, with SCFI dropping 27.9% in September, reflecting a slowdown in global shipping demand[3] Future Outlook - The report suggests a cautious optimism for future exports, as the impact of typhoons and currency fluctuations may stabilize, potentially boosting October's export figures[4] - The CRB industrial raw materials price index has shown signs of marginal improvement since September, indicating that global trade may not immediately trend downward[4] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor domestic policy adjustments and their potential impact on export and import dynamics moving forward[5]