宏观动态点评：短期因素扰动9月出口

Trade Data Summary - In September, China's dollar-denominated exports grew by 2.4% year-on-year, down from 8.7% in August, while imports slowed to 0.3% from 0.5%[1] - The trade surplus remained high at $81.7 billion, reflecting an 8.8% year-on-year increase, indicating that net exports continue to support economic growth[1] - The global manufacturing PMI fell to 48.8, indicating a contraction, with new export orders dropping to 47.5, suggesting weakening external demand[2] Export Performance - September's export growth was affected by short-term factors such as typhoons and geopolitical risks, with the export peak season occurring about a month earlier than usual[1] - Steel and automotive exports contributed approximately 40% to overall export growth, with steel exports increasing by 26% year-on-year and automotive exports growing by 13%[2] - The contribution of integrated circuits to overall exports decreased from 0.7 percentage points in August to 0.3 percentage points in September[2] Import Trends - September's imports showed a slight recovery on a seasonally adjusted basis, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% after a decline of 2.6% in August[2] - Key commodities like copper and steel saw significant year-on-year recovery in import volumes, with copper imports improving from -11.3% in August to -0.4% in September[2] - The manufacturing PMI's production index rose by 1.4 percentage points, indicating a marginal improvement in domestic demand[2] Future Outlook - The global manufacturing cycle is expected to weaken further, and uncertainties surrounding the upcoming U.S. elections may impact exports[3] - China's export competitiveness and cost advantages are anticipated to remain strong, with cross-border e-commerce contributing to structural growth in exports[3] - The share of cross-border e-commerce in total exports increased from 7.7% last year to 8% in the first three quarters of this year, contributing about 14% to export growth[3]