Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In September, new social financing (社融) amounted to 3.76 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations of 3.52 trillion yuan, but down 369.2 billion yuan year-on-year[2] - New RMB loans from financial institutions totaled 1.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 720 billion yuan[2] - M2 growth rebounded to 6.8%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, marking the first increase since March 2023[2] Group 2: Deposit and Loan Trends - Non-bank financial institutions saw a deposit increase of 910 billion yuan, significantly higher than the average decline of 332.5 billion yuan over the past four years[2] - New household deposits in September were 2.2 trillion yuan, down 331.6 billion yuan year-on-year, aligning closely with the four-year average[2] - New corporate deposits reached 770 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 569 billion yuan due to a low base last year[2] Group 3: Fiscal and Debt Insights - New fiscal deposits decreased by 235.8 billion yuan, indicating a significant fiscal expenditure of 16.71 billion yuan, the second highest in a decade[3] - As of October 17, there are approximately 23 trillion yuan in special bond funds available for use, with over 10 trillion yuan in previously issued but unused special bond funds[3] - New corporate bond financing fell to -192.6 billion yuan, marking the first negative figure in eight months, with a year-on-year decrease of 257.6 billion yuan[3] Group 4: Market Implications - The government bond issuance has been the largest support for social financing for five consecutive months, with September's new government bond financing at 1.5357 trillion yuan[4] - The overall financing environment for corporate bonds is expected to improve marginally following recent fiscal announcements[3] - The demand for residential loans remains weak, with new loans of 500 billion yuan in September, down 358.5 billion yuan year-on-year[5]
9月金融数据,三个变化
HUAXI Securities·2024-10-15 02:03