宏观动态：中国9月信贷数据继续反映居民及企业部分缺乏借贷意愿，表现与PMI、物价及进出口数据一致，此前以旧换

Market Performance - On October 14, the Hang Seng Index experienced a high-low fluctuation of 655 points, closing down 159 points or 0.8% at 21,092 points[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.4%, closing at 4,668 points, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 1.0%[1] - Market turnover decreased to HKD 277.1 billion, the lowest since October 4, indicating a potential downward trend in trading volume[1] Economic Indicators - In September, new RMB loans decreased by CNY 720 billion year-on-year, with both short-term and medium-to-long-term loans for residents declining for eight consecutive months[1] - The M1 money supply fell by 7.4% year-on-year, marking a record low, indicating insufficient cash flow in the economy[1] - September's export figures showed a 2.4% year-on-year increase, the lowest growth rate since May, falling short of the expected 6%[2] Real Estate Market - New home sales in 30 major cities reached 2.18 million square meters, down 12.0% year-on-year, but up 139.2% month-on-month[2] - The inventory-to-sales ratio for the top ten cities was 94.7, higher than last year's 72.7 but lower than the previous week's 111.3[2] - Land transaction volume in 100 major cities fell by 22.8% year-on-year, with first-tier cities seeing zero transactions[4] Investment Strategy - The Hang Seng Index's PE ratio has recovered to a seven-year average, with a potential target range of 23,500 to 25,000 points by year-end[5] - The report suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from policy support, including consumer goods, technology, and non-bank financials[6] - Recent government policies aimed at stimulating the economy are expected to improve market sentiment and potentially lead to a recovery in the real estate sector[5]