2024Q3光伏业绩前瞻：光伏主产业链价格接近止跌企稳

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable outlook for the photovoltaic industry, with prices nearing stabilization in Q3 2024 [4][6][12]. Core Viewpoints - The average price decline in Q3 2024 has narrowed, suggesting that the main industry chain prices are stabilizing. The willingness for price wars has decreased, and there is a strong inclination for price increases among leading companies [4][7][12]. - The report anticipates that the average prices for silicon materials, silicon wafers, and battery cells will stabilize in Q4 2024, with a strong desire for price increases due to continuous supply-side contraction [4][7][12]. Summary by Sections Silicon Materials - In Q3 2024, the average price of N-type silicon materials was 41,000 CNY/ton, with a decrease of 6,000 CNY/ton (-12%) compared to the previous quarter. The price decline has slowed as it approaches the cash cost of leading companies, reducing the motivation for price wars [7][12]. - The report highlights that the supply-side contraction is supporting price stabilization, with leading companies like GCL-Poly and Tongwei benefiting from lower costs [7][12]. Silicon Wafers - The average price of N-type silicon wafers in Q3 2024 was 0.13 CNY/W, reflecting a decrease of 0.03 CNY/W (-17%) from the previous quarter. The price decline has slowed, and the supply-side is expected to continue contracting [12][18]. - The report notes that the overall operating rate has been reduced, indicating a shift away from aggressive pricing strategies among leading companies [12][18]. Battery Cells - The average price of N-type battery cells in Q3 2024 was 0.29 CNY/W, down by 0.06 CNY/W (-18%) from the previous quarter. The decline in prices is attributed to the drop in component prices [18][22]. - The report suggests that the supply-side remains balanced, with future price movements largely dependent on demand from the component sector [18][22]. Components - The average price of N-type components in Q3 2024 was 0.80 CNY/W, down by 0.10 CNY/W (-11%). Despite upstream material prices stabilizing, component prices have continued to decline due to aggressive pricing strategies in a slowing market [23][28]. - The report indicates that the component sector has entered a cash loss phase, with no signs of price recovery in the near term [23][28]. Glass - The average price of 2.0mm photovoltaic glass in Q3 2024 was 14.9 CNY/sqm, down by 3.5 CNY/sqm (-19%). The report attributes the price decline to weak downstream demand despite a reduction in production [37][42]. - Future price movements will depend on the consumption of glass inventory and the operating rates of components in the upcoming months [37][42]. Silver Paste - The average price of front-side silver paste in Q3 2024 was 7,419 CNY/kg, reflecting a decrease of 210 CNY/kg (-3%). The price changes are primarily driven by fluctuations in silver powder prices [44][47]. - The report anticipates stable profitability in the silver paste sector, with future price movements influenced by demand from the battery cell sector and new technologies [44][47]. EPE Film - The average price of EPE film in Q3 2024 was 6.66 CNY/sqm, down by 1.1 CNY/sqm (-15%). The report notes that the price decline is linked to the overall stability in production and demand from the component sector [30][34]. - Future price changes will be influenced by the demand for components [30][34].