2024年9月社融数据点评：M1是观察政策效果的关键变量

Group 1: Social Financing Overview - In September 2024, the growth rate of social financing stock slightly decreased to 8.0% from the previous 8.1%, with new social financing amounting to 3.76 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 372.2 billion yuan[4] - The highlight of September's social financing was the recovery in loan growth, with new loans showing a smaller year-on-year decrease of 720 billion yuan compared to previous months[4] - Government bonds continued to be a significant support, with local government financing accelerating to a net financing amount of 1.1 trillion yuan and a total of 1.5 trillion yuan in new government bonds, an increase of 540 billion yuan year-on-year[4] Group 2: Credit and Monetary Policy - The trend of "balance sheet contraction" in the private sector has significantly slowed down, indicating a step towards repairing balance sheets[6] - M2 growth rate rebounded to 6.8% from 6.3%, while M1 growth rate slightly declined to -7.4% from -7.3%[10] - Non-bank deposits increased significantly by 910 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting a stable monetary effect amid stock and bond market rallies[10] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The ability of government credit to stimulate private sector credit will be crucial for future economic recovery, with M1 growth expected to rise if private sector balance sheets are repaired[14] - Risks include the potential for the private sector's balance sheet repair process to fall short of expectations, which could hinder credit recovery[16] - Continued government support through fiscal policies is anticipated to stabilize social financing in the coming months[4]