9月贸易数据点评：短期扰动再现，四季度出口或有韧性

Export Performance - September export growth rate was 2.4%, down from 8.7% in August, indicating a negative momentum in month-on-month performance[1] - The decline in exports is attributed to seasonal weakening of overseas demand and the impact of typhoons in mid-September[2] - Major export markets, including the US, EU, Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN, all experienced a decrease in export growth rates[1] Future Outlook - Despite the risk of weakening exports in Q4 due to a continuous decline in global PMI over four months, the expected drop is anticipated to be less severe than market expectations, with an annual export growth forecast of 4.1%[3] - The rebound in October exports is expected due to the backlog of goods caused by typhoons, which is projected to lead to a month-on-month increase[3] - Potential "rush to export" phenomenon may occur if Trump wins the election, as historical data suggests significant tariff threat signals lead to increased exports in the following quarter[3] Import Trends - September import growth rate was 0.3%, slightly down from 0.5% in August, with agricultural and chemical imports showing recovery while energy imports declined[2]