轻工制造：地产政策组合拳驱动家居板块估值修复

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the home furnishing sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that marginal policy changes are the core reason for the cyclical formation in the home furnishing and real estate sectors, suggesting that recent policy adjustments may initiate a new upward cycle for these industries [3][11]. - It highlights the strong correlation between the performance of the home furnishing sector and the real estate sector, particularly during periods of policy easing [14][20]. - The report identifies that the home furnishing sector is currently at a valuation bottom, with potential for valuation recovery driven by ongoing policy support [3][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Fundamental Review - The home furnishing industry is influenced by real estate growth and consumer purchasing power, with new and second-hand housing sales significantly impacting demand [7]. - Historical analysis shows four major down cycles in the home furnishing and real estate sectors since 2011, with recent policy-driven up cycles observed in late 2021 and early 2022 [8][11]. 2. Valuation Review - The home furnishing sector has shown a high correlation with the real estate sector from 2012 to 2024, with significant performance differences noted during various policy phases [14][20]. - The report outlines that the home furnishing sector's valuation typically remains higher than that of the real estate sector, with slower downward adjustments during tightening periods [20][24]. 3. Recent Policy Review - The report details two significant rounds of policy easing in the past year, occurring in July-August 2023 and April-May 2024, aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [3][40]. - It anticipates further policy measures in October 2024, which may continue to support the recovery of the real estate and home furnishing sectors [3][40]. 4. Investment Logic and Key Recommendations - The report suggests that ongoing policy support is likely to boost confidence in the home furnishing sector, recommending leading companies such as Oppein Home, Sophia, and ZB Home for investment due to their higher revenue elasticity in favorable policy environments [3][24].